Study On The Influencing Factors Of Natural Gas Import Safety In China

Since the 11 th Five-Year Plan,energy structural transformation has been continuously included in the national plan,which has become the basic strategy of China’s economic and energy development.The development of low carbon and atmospheric environment in China urgently needs strong support for energy structural transformation.Natural gas,as a clean,efficient and green low carbon energy,plays an important role in the transformation of energy structure in China.In 2019,the proportion of natural gas consumption in China reached 8.10%.However,China’s domestic natural gas resources are relatively scarce,natural gas supply mainly depends on international resources.As the world’s largest natural gas importer,China has almost no right to speak in the international natural gas market and is forced to bear the "Asian premium " and is faced with a series of import security problems in the aspects of geopolitics and external dependence.The study on the influencing factors of natural gas import safety in China will help to enhance the ability to prevent and resist the risks in various links,formulate reasonable natural gas import strategies,and ensure the safety of China’s natural gas import.Based on factor endowment theory,geopolitics theory and sustainable development theory.Firstly,the present situation of China’s natural gas import security is analyzed from four aspects: supply security,import source security,transport security and price security.Secondly,according to the HHI index to determine the indicators to measure the safety of China’s natural gas imports,and considering the present situation of China’s natural gas import security,the present situation of domestic natural gas development and the international energy environment,the factors affecting the safety of China’s natural gas imports are divided into supply and demand factors,geopolitical factors,transport factors and economic factors and alternative factors.Finally,based on the time series data of 2006～2019,the safety index of natural gas import in China is selected as the explained variable,and the consumption intensity of natural gas,the external dependence of natural gas,the geopolitical risk,the transport risks,the volatility of natural gas price and the index of long-term natural gas import capacity are selected as the explanatory variables,and then we choose the multiple linear regression model for stepwise regression analysis to draw the relationship between the influencing factors and the safety of natural gas import in China,and make relevant suggestions based on the results of analysis.According to the data analysis,the following conclusions are drawn :(1)The external dependence of natural gas has the strongest explanatory power to the safety index of natural gas import in China,and the two have a significant positive correlation.The higher the external dependence of natural gas,the greater the natural gas import safety index and the more unsafe the condition of natural gas import.(2)There is a positive correlation between the geopolitical risk and China’s gas import safety index.The greater the geopolitical risk,the higher the safety index of natural gas import in China,and the more unsafe the import situation.(3)The long-term natural gas import capacity index has a strong explanatory power to China’s natural gas import safety index,and the two have a negative correlation.The higher the long-term natural gas import capacity index,the smaller the safety index of natural gas import and the safer the condition of natural gas import.(4)The consumption intensity of natural gas,the transport risk and the volatility of natural gas price have no significant influence on China’s natural gas import safety.