Research On Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emission Price In China

The rapid development of the world economy,population growth and industrial progress have led to the rapid growth of energy demand,increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases,and aggravated the greenhouse effect,climate anomalies and other global environmental degradation.In order to realize carbon emission reduction and control temperature rise,the carbon emission trading market(following referred to as carbon market)with carbon emission rights as the trading target arises at the historic moment.China’s carbon trading market is developing at a late stage and adopts a point-with-surface approach.Up to now,there have been eight provincial and municipal carbon trading pilot markets,and it is expected to establish a unified national carbon trading market from 2020 to 2025.At present,China has accumulated a certain amount of carbon trading experience and achieved certain achievements under the promotion of relevant policies.However,there is still a relative lack of research on the overall sample,and the carbon emission trading price(following referred to as carbon price)still has a large volatility.Therefore,excluding the Fujian carbon market with less data,this paper included the sample data of the other seven markets and selected a unified trading time period.Then this paper will study the factors influencing the carbon price,establish a more robust pricing mechanism,and facilitate the smooth transition of the pilot market to a national unified carbon trading market.This paper combines theoretical analysis with empirical analysis.The historical literature on carbon trading price at home and abroad is sorted out.Combined with the theory of equilibrium price,Coase property right theory,emission trading and other theories,qualitative analysis is carried out on the influencing factors of China’s carbon trading price.This paper analyzes the international and domestic carbon trading systems,and draws on the operating experience of developed carbon trading markets such as the European Union,the United States and Australia,so as to analyze the current situation and related problems of the seven pilot carbon trading markets in China,including the volatility of trading prices and the concentration of trading volume,quota allocation methods and fluctuation risk limits.Furthermore,the influencing factors of carbon trading price are divided into three aspects: energy price,industrial economy and climate environment.Six corresponding explanatory variables were selected as the potential influencing factors of carbon trading price to construct the static panel model,and Stata software was used to conduct empirical analysis from the three aspects of mixed effect,random effect and fixed effect.The results of LM test,F test,Hausman test and goodness of fit showed that the individual fixation effect had the best fit.The model regression results show that energy price,industrial economy and climate environment all have a significant impact on carbon price,and the regression results are analyzed.Then the dynamic vector autoregressive model is constructed and the impulse response function is established to observe the impulse response trend of the carbon price after the independent variable is affected by the unit shock in a long period of time.The variance decomposition function is established to observe the dynamic change of the explanatory power of each factor to the explained variable in a long period of time.Sufficient empirical analysis will explain the above regression results.Finally,on the basis of drawing lessons from the development experience of the international carbon market,some suggestions are put forward for the construction of a unified national carbon trading market to promote carbon emission reduction.