Multi-Scenario Simulation Of "Production-Living-Ecological" Space In The Poyang Lake Area Based On Remote Sensing And RF-Markov-PLUS Model

With the development of industrialization and urbanization,the competition among production,living and ecological spaces in national land space has become more and more intense,especially in the ecological function protection areas,the disorderly competition among various land uses has restricted the coordinated development of the " Production-Living-Ecological " spaces.In order to explore the path of sustainable development of land space,this study,from the perspective of "three generations" space,based on the long-time series Landsat remote sensing image and the geographic spatial information analysis technology,selects the object-oriented image interpretation method and the landscape pattern index analysis method to monitor the spatiotemporal dynamic changes and landscape pattern changes of Poyang Lake area from 1989 to2020,the RF-Markov-PLUS coupled model is used to screen the influencing factors with high correlation,predict the spatial demand in 2030 under multiple scenarios,and simulate the structure,quantity and change trend of each national spatial type in Poyang Lake region in 2030 under four types of scenarios: production space priority scenario,living space priority scenario,ecological space priority scenario and comprehensive development scenario.The spatial demand of Poyang Lake in 2030 is simulated in four scenarios: production space priority scenario,living space priority scenario,ecological space priority scenario and comprehensive development scenario.Based on the analysis of research results,the path of sustainable development and enhancement of national land space in Poyang Lake area is explored.The main research results show that.(1)Based on the eCognition Developer 64 software platform,object-oriented methods are used to interpret seven remote sensing images from 1989,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020,with classification accuracy of over 85%.By verifying and comparing the accuracy of FLUS and PLUS models,it is concluded that the PLUS model has a high applicability.(2)From the spatial structure of national land,the annual average proportion of "Production-Living-Ecological " spaces in Poyang Lake area from 1989 to 2020 is 69%,23% and 9% respectively,and the ecological space accounts for the largest proportion;from the spatial distribution,the production space is mainly distributed in the central lakeside plain of Poyang Lake area,and the living space is mainly distributed in Nanchang city and Jiujiang city.In terms of spatial distribution,production space is mainly distributed in the central lakeside plain of Poyang Lake area,living space is mainly distributed in urban development areas such as Nanchang city and Jiujiang city,and ecological land is mainly distributed in the surrounding areas such as Lushan area,Poyang Lake body and Meiling area;the area proportion of production space and ecological space decreases during the study period,decreasing by 3% and 7%respectively,while the area proportion of living space increases the most,rising by 11%;in terms of the attitude of national land space dynamics,the attitude of living space dynamics is the highest;in terms of the overall comprehensive utilization of national land In terms of overall comprehensive land use,the overall growth has continued in the past three decades,and the growth rate has accelerated in the past decade.In terms of the spatial transfer matrix,the transfer of ecological space and the transfer of living space are the main factors.(3)Analyzing the landscape pattern from the patch scale and landscape scale,the complexity,fragmentation and dispersion of production space and ecological space landscape in Poyang Lake area are gradually increasing during the study period,while the change of living space landscape is more regular and regular,and the degree of connectivity and overall degree is greatly improved.For the overall landscape,the landscape spreading degree decreases,the landscape heterogeneity increases,the landscape shape gradually breaks away from regular geometry,the landscape is refining,and there is a lack of dominant patches.(4)This study sets up production space priority scenario,living space priority scenario,ecological space priority scenario and comprehensive development scenario,four types of scenarios simulate the change of national land space in 2030,the results show that: compared with other three scenarios,under comprehensive development scenario,the area of production space maintains a steady growth rate in 2030;the expansion rate of living space slows down;the area of ecological space decreases the least,this This scenario is most consistent with the sustainable development concept of Poyang Lake area,which meets the sustainable demand of ecological restoration,arable land protection and economic development in the study area,and pays more attention to the reasonable allocation of each space.(5)Based on the problems in the spatial pattern of national land in Poyang Lake area,this study insists on the combination of problem-oriented and goal-oriented,and according to the target orientation of national land space and the problems faced by development,the three aspects of agricultural industry transformation,improving the efficiency of urban land use and realizing the life community of "landscape,water,forest,field,lake and grass" are solved respectively.The research results can provide a framework for the future development of Poyang Lake.The research results can provide scientific planning and suggestions for the future ecological protection pattern of Poyang Lake area with multiple scenarios and perspectives.