Research On Natural Disaster Risk Assessment And Prevention Countermeasures In Fengxin County Based On Natural Disaster Chain

Affected by global climate change,the frequency and uncertainty of natural disasters are increasing year by year;in order to deal with the crisis brought about by possible natural disasters,a large number of scholars are actively carrying out predictive assessment of natural disasters.my country is a large country of agricultural resources.At present,nearly40%of the population lives in rural areas.The region accounts for nearly 35% of my country’s total area.It is easy to cause minor disasters;this study revolves around how the natural disaster assessment system in rural areas is established.Research method: Use the ID threshold model to carry out the division of disaster rainfall.After obtaining the rainfall threshold value,the indicators of the evaluation system are substituted into the model to evaluate the risk of disaster risk.At the same time,the disaster chain relationship map is established.The indicator system is substituted into the BN prediction model to carry out evaluation work.Results and conclusions: After calculating the ID model,if the rainfall in the county exceeds 133.7 mm/1D,the possibility of the formation of the natural disaster chain will be more than 80%;the two different models are used to calculate the more than133.7 mm rainfall in the research area to rainfall the rainfall.The distribution of disaster risks,the results show that the conclusions of the evaluation of the two models are basically the same.The actual situation in the east is consistent with;after verification,the overall similarity of the two models is higher,but the complexity of the evaluation conclusions and the fineness of the model results,the BN model is stronger than the ID model.Below are key research findings:(1)After the calculation of linear regression is calculated,the results of the risk distribution of the ID model are obtained.Among them,the high-risk areas of natural disasters within the management scope of the rain stations divided by the VD tool accounted for 19.73% of the total area,accounting for 22.73% of all risk levels.The areas are: Liuxi Township,Cry Spinning Town,Shangfu Town,Luoshi Town and Bathing Town.In the case that various indicators have no subjective regulation,high-risk areas account for nearly 20% of the total area ratio,and high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the southwestern region.(2)After the adjustment and calculation,the evaluation result of the BN model is: high-risk areas account for 13.39% of the total area,and 13.64% of all levels of risk.Compared with the results of the ID model evaluation,the total area of high risk areas decreases by 6.34%,all levels of risk risk,all levels of risk The proportion decreased by 8.45%,and the evaluation results were reduced in two areas of Liuxi Township and Shangfu Town.(3)After dividing the administrative village as the evaluation unit,the ID model’s high-risk,high-risk,and vulnerable areas account for 6.5% of all risk levels.In the conclusion of the BN model assessment,the frequency and area of extreme risk levels have decreased.Among them,high risk,high vulnerability levels account for 4.5%,and the total area accounts for2.62%.The main area and surrounding areas are mainly based on the results of the evaluation of the ID model.The area decreases by 2.13%,and the proportion of all risk levels is 2.1%.(4)High-risk,highly fragile villages are mainly distributed in hill areas.The main reason is that when the rainstorm disaster occurs,the hilly area has a large high slope change in high mountainous areas,but also has a good water storage ability in relatively gentle areas.The vulnerability of the disaster indicators in the second area is also relatively relative to other regions.Low-risk,low and weak areas are mainly concentrated near Qiaotou Village and Beixi Village in the Eastern Plain area.These villages are flat and far away from the river.The area is not easy to cause natural disasters due to heavy rain.