Study On Traffic Conflict Situation In Western Waters Of Shenzhen

The rapid development of Shenzhen’s economy has driven the rapid growth of waterway transport demand,and the western waters of Shenzhen as a bridge between the Pearl River and the sea,many ships sailing through the western waters of Shenzhen to enter and exit the Pearl River,resulting in a greater density of ships in the waters,the contradiction between the supply and demand of the waterway is also increasing,but also derived from ship collisions,traffic jams and other traffic safety problems,has been a serious constraint to the normal operation of the water traffic system.On the other hand,the traffic management mode of western Shenzhen waters is still at the stage of traditional empirical and rough management,which is not effectively combined with advanced technologies such as big data and intelligent computing,resulting in the lack of knowledge of the operation rules and development bottlenecks of the traffic system in the waters,and it is difficult to achieve effective management.Therefore,this paper takes the western Shenzhen waters as the research object,on the basis of making full use of the continuous improvement of the traffic data collection equipment,from the massive and diversified AIS data,the size of the ship field applicable to the research waters is counted,and after that,combined with the composition of the elements of the waters traffic system,the situation metric framework and the situation metric model are constructed to accurately capture the intrinsic characteristics and potential risks of the waters traffic operation,and finally,from the micro Finally,we quantify and visualize the conflict situation of water traffic at micro and macro levels,and provide a basis for risk prevention and control in water.The specific work of this paper is as follows.(1)Vessel domain statistics in western Shenzhen waters.Based on the preprocessing of AIS data and ship position conversion,the statistical model of ship domain based on the relative distance and bearing of ships is established,and the size of ship domain under different scales and speed conditions is accurately portrayed by combining with the actual ship navigation in western Shenzhen waters,which provides the basis for traffic conflict situation measurement.(2)Water traffic conflict theory analysis.On the basis of a comprehensive review of traffic conflict research in road and aviation fields,the concept,form,severity and determination methods of water traffic conflict are analyzed and defined in depth with the characteristics of water traffic,which lays a theoretical foundation and interpretation basis for the subsequent situation research of this paper,and further improves the theoretical system of water traffic conflict and traffic conflict application research.(3)Construction of traffic conflict situation metric model.Based on the ship domain model,the temporal and spatial characteristics of traffic conflict theory and posture theory are analyzed,and the traffic conflict posture metric framework based on traffic state and traffic trend is constructed.(4)Visualization of traffic conflict situation in western Shenzhen waters.The paper takes the busiest traffic area in the western Shenzhen waters as an example,follows the visualization process,visualizes the microscopic ship traffic conflict situation and macroscopic regional traffic conflict situation,and shows the distribution of single moment,specific ship and overall regional traffic conflict situation in the form of heat map,and verifies the consistency between the visualization results and the actual traffic accident data.The results show that the traffic conflict situation metric model and visualization are effective and can provide decision support for water traffic management.From the perspective of risk prevention and control,the theoretical and methodological approaches of data mining,mathematical statistics and mathematical modeling are used to systematically carry out the research on the basic theory of traffic conflict and the situation measurement based on the traffic characteristics and the actual situation of ship navigation in the western Shenzhen waters.The research results not only help the traffic control personnel to have a comprehensive grasp of the traffic situation in the waters,discover the dangerous areas in the waters in time,formulate scientific traffic control measures and improve the overall safety of the waters;but also help the drivers to identify the traffic risks in time and take collision avoidance measures in advance to reduce the probability of accidents;meanwhile,it helps the traffic control departments to improve the traffic management efficiency,change the management mode and realize scientific and refined management.