Research On The Carbon Emission Reduction Potential Of Urban New Energy Public Transport System

In 2020,China promised to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.To achieve this goal,we should take energy conservation as the guide,low-carbon as the key,new energy power generation as the direction,and energy storage power stations as the supplement,systematically handle the relationship between economic development and reducing carbon emissions,and promote the transformation of energy structure and economic development.It is an inevitable trend for sustainable development to study strategies to reduce urban vehicle carbon emissions,fully utilize new energy to build low-carbon cities,and ultimately build a net zero carbon emission city.At present,scholars at home and abroad have studied new energy comprehensive utilization systems and transportation carbon emission models,but they have not conducted research on the comprehensive utilization of new energy such as solar energy,energy storage batteries,and electric vehicles to reduce carbon emissions.Research on intelligent new energy comprehensive utilization systems that combine photovoltaic power generation,energy storage batteries,and electric vehicles for coupled operation has yet to be carried out.This article takes Changchun as the research object,combines the actual situation of the public transportation system in Changchun,establishes a mathematical model to calculate carbon emissions,and simulates and optimizes the configuration of photovoltaic energy storage capacity.By combining photovoltaic and public transportation system carbon emissions,it ultimately determines the economy and carbon emission reduction potential of the urban new energy public transportation system,providing scientific basis for achieving a net zero carbon emission city.Firstly,carbon emission models for public transportation systems and photovoltaic systems are constructed based on the life cycle assessment(LCA)and emission coefficient methods.According to the basic principles of optical storage systems,the mathematical models and selection parameters of each component are briefly described,laying a theoretical foundation for the simulation of future research.Based on the daily operation data of Changchun Public Transport Group and the data provided by the Transportation Bureau,combined with literature,vehicle parameters provided by a company,and energy data from the National Bureau of Energy Statistics,a mathematical model is constructed to predict the carbon emission coefficient of coal power;Based on the carbon emission model,the carbon emissions of three types of buses under three different energy structures during their entire life cycle were calculated.From the perspective of LCA,the carbon emissions of electric buses are 75.62% of those of natural gas buses and 54%of those of diesel vehicles.At the same time,with the development of electricity structure and carbon collection technology,the carbon emission reduction rate reaches 35.27% to 63.11%,and the benefits of emission reduction will become increasingly significant.Secondly,the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is used to simulate and predict the city’s bus output load and optimize the capacity of the optical storage system.Based on the HOMER simulation software,combined with the geographical conditions and historical meteorological data of Changchun City,the annual bus load of 8760 hours is simulated based on the daily bus output curve and seasonal load factors.The research combines the photovoltaic power generation law based on meteorological data with the electric load law of buses,and uses energy storage battery systems to suppress energy fluctuations in the bus system.With the goal of minimizing the total net present cost(NPC)and the average cost of energy(COE),the system capacity was determined to be 122.52 MW for photovoltaic modules and529.26 MW for energy storage.8760 hours of photovoltaic,battery,and state of charge(SOC)output maps were obtained for the entire year,and the daily average24-hour photovoltaic and battery output in January winter and July summer were analyzed in detail,The research adopts the form of "Spontaneous use of surplus electricity for internet access" to conduct grid connection treatment for abandoned electricity.Then,using Archelios simulation software,combined with the electricity purchase time of use electricity price and grid connection electricity price in Changchun region,the power station revenue and the entire life cycle carbon emissions of photovoltaic power stations during the 25 year period were calculated.The results showed that the overall system revenue in the 25 th year was 3200.57 million yuan,and the carbon emission reduction of the entire life cycle photovoltaic power generation compared to the current thermal power generation energy structure could reach 3.3395 million tons,with huge carbon emission reduction potential.Finally,through integration with data from the public transportation system,it is determined that the potential of the system in urban carbon emission reduction reaches 59%.This study can be popularized and applied to reduce the carbon emissions of urban vehicles in other regions,and can provide the scientific basis for the government to formulate policies and regulations to reduce urban carbon emissions.It can also provide a scientific basis for the study of intelligent new energy comprehensive utilization simulation systems.