Simulation Study On The Impact Of Carbon Tax On Energy-Economy-Environment In The Guangdong Province

For a long time,the extensive economic development model has made China’s economy develop rapidly and become the second largest economy in the world in2010.However,this production mode with high input,high consumption and high emission at the expense of resources and the environment has also made China the largest carbon emitter in the world.Constrained by the carbon emission reduction target put forward by China in the Paris Agreement,this development model has been difficult to sustain.At present,China’s fiscal,taxation and financial policies for carbon emission reduction are still in the exploratory stage,and they have not given full play to their incentive and restraint role in the green and low-carbon transformation of enterprises.Carbon tax can be used as a supplement to the carbon emission trading policy to make up for its shortcomings in coverage,policy implementation cost and policy stability.In order to explore the impact of different carbon tax policies on energy-economyenvironment in Guangdong Province,this paper follows the technical route of "literature sorting-current situation analysis-theoretical modeling-policy simulation-policy suggestion".Firstly,the research literature on the impact of carbon tax on energy-economy-environment at home and abroad is sorted out,and the research ideas and analysis tools are determined.Secondly,using the data of Guangdong Statistical Yearbook and China Energy Statistical Yearbook,this paper makes a descriptive analysis of the present situation of energy-economy-environment in Guangdong Province.Thirdly,under the guidance of macro-micro economics,input-output theory and general equilibrium theory,the social accounting matrix of Guangdong Province with 11 departments and the computable general equilibrium model of carbon tax with 7 modules are established.Finally,the GAMS software is used to simulate the changes of energy,economy and environment variables under different tax rates and tax refund scenarios,and the reasons for the changes are analyzed.The research results show that when the tax rate is 40-120 yuan/ton of carbon dioxide:(1)The carbon emission reduction in Guangdong Province is 1.04%-3.11%,and the real GDP has decreased by 0.82%-2.64%.(2)Because of the different carbon emission coefficients of various energy sources,the fixed tax rate will cause different price changes of energy sources..(3)Because heavy industry and other departments are highly dependent on energy,the output is greatly affected by carbon tax.(4)Government revenue increased,but household consumption and enterprise income decreased.(5)The return of carbon tax revenue can make up for economic losses,but it weakens the effect of energy saving and emission reduction.Therefore,this paper puts forward five targeted suggestions:(1)When formulating carbon tax policy,both carbon emission reduction targets and economic targets should be taken into account.(2)Gradually increase the carbon tax rate.(3)Set a reasonable tax basis and scope.(4)Improve the existing green tax system.(5)Design a scientific scheme for the use of carbon tax revenue.