Temporal And Spatial Changes Of Cultivated Land Carrying Capacity In Ecologically Vulnerable Areas At The Township Scale Coupled With Farmers’ Will

With the economic development and urban expansion,a large number of cultivated land has been occupied,unreasonable use of cultivated land phenomenon occurs frequently,and the relationship between people and land is increasingly tense.Due to the weak anti-interference ability and sensitivity to climate change,the problem of cultivated land in ecologically fragile areas has become more severe,and the carrying pressure of cultivated land is huge.Farmers are the main participants of cultivated land production activities,so the calculation of cultivated land carrying capacity should take into account the impact of farmers’decision-making willingness.On the other hand,the research on cultivated land carrying capacity in many major mesoscale regions in China is less focused on the township scale.Therefore,this paper takes Ganzhou District,a typical ecological vulnerable area,as the research area,based on the farmers’willingness to improve the AEZ method,Combined with GIS technology,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial changes of cultivated land carrying capacity in Ganzhou District in 2009,2012,2015 and 2018,and further combined with multi-agent model,time series model and grey system GM(1:1)model to predict the future changes of cultivated land,climate and population in the study area,and predicts the cultivated land carrying capacity in 2024 and 2030.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2009 to 2018,the cultivated land area of Ganzhou district was95258.64hm~2 and 103091.65hm~2,showing an increasing trend.The distribution proportion of cultivated land area in each administrative region has no obvious change.The administrative regions with relatively large cultivated land area are mainly Dangzhai town and Shajing Town;the area with relatively large per capita cultivated land area is Pingshanhu Mongolian township.The cultivated land is mainly composed of irrigated land,accounting for more than 95%of the total cultivated land;the crops with large cultivated area are mainly corn and wheat,usually one season a year.(2)The year with higher production potential in Ganzhou district appeared in2012,which was mainly related to climate conditions;the higher areas appeared near Daman Town,Xiaoman town and Longqu Township,which was related to rainfall,soil conditions and input level.The areas with higher GDP are mainly distributed in Shajing Town and Dangzhai Town,and the rest of the towns are gradually decreasing with these two towns as the center,which is related to the distribution of cultivated land area.The consumption level of most regions does not meet the standard of food and clothing,and the index of cultivated land carrying capacity is high.The main influencing factors of cultivated land carrying capacity in different periods are natural conditions;the main influencing factors of cultivated land carrying capacity in different regions are per capita cultivated land area.(3)The predicted area of cultivated land in 2024 and 2030 will increase by1097.01 hm~2 and 1115.64 hm~2 respectively compared with that in 2018,mainly increasing the planting of alfalfa and other crops.In 2024 and 2030,the population is expected to decrease by 5945 and 13336 respectively.The administrative districts with population increase are Beijie street,Shajing Town,Shangqin Town,ganjun Town,Xindun Town,sanzha Town,Chang’an Township,Mingyong Township and Pingshanhu Mongolian township.(4)In 2024,the production potential at all levels will decrease compared with that in 2018,In 2030,photosynthetic potential productivity and light temperature potential productivity showed an increasing trend,while the rest showed a decreasing trend.The change of productive potential is mainly related to the change of natural climate conditions and cultivated land planting structure,but the change of distribution structure in each administrative region is not obvious.In 2024 and 2030,compared with 2018,the population carrying capacity of cultivated land resources in Ganzhou District decreased by 19246 and 16321 respectively,which was related to the reduction of production potential;the cultivated land carrying index was 2.11 and2.05 respectively,which was in a state of serious overload,and the imbalance between supply and demand was serious.(5)The constraints of ecological fragile areas on cultivated land carrying capacity are mainly reflected in the selection of crop planting types,the amount of rainfall and the constraints of soil quality conditions on crop growth.