Research On Provincial Carbon Emission Right Allocation Strategy Under The Constraints Of Energy And Carbon Emissions

The frequent occurrence of extreme weather has brought great losses to social production and life,and the issue of global warming has become the most urgent environmental issue to be addressed.Addressing climate change and reducing carbon dioxide emissions have become a worldwide consensus.As a responsible big country,China has deeply promoted low-carbon development,actively fulfilled emission reduction commitments,and gradually refined emission reduction content.Research on the allocation of emission reductions based on the DEA method has achieved certain results.Existing research has conducted research on carbon emission rights based on various principles,but none of them considers the constraints of total energy consumption or the inseparable relationship between energy and carbon dioxide.This thesis focuses on the dual constraints of total energy and total carbon emissions,with the goal of adjusting carbon emissions without reducing energy utilization efficiency:(1)Building a fixed-sum output data envelopment analysis efficiency evaluation model under the constraint of a carbonization index to evaluate China’s provincial carbon emissions efficiency from 2011 to 2020;(2)Building a carbon emission rights allocation model considering energy utilization efficiency,and initially allocate carbon emission rights in 2030.Compare and analyze the allocation results with the zero sum game DEA model and historical allocation method to test the rationality and superiority of the model.The research results show that:(1)China’s provincial carbon emission efficiency is generally good,with higher carbon emission efficiency in economic centers such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta,and the Pearl River Delta,with regional levels increasing sequentially from west to east;(2)Provinces with relatively developed industrial economies and large traditional energy sources have obtained relatively more carbon emission rights,and the trend of change in the allocation of energy use rights is basically the same as that of carbon emission rights,fully reflecting the objective law that energy use rights and carbon emission rights cannot be separated;(3)Compared to the historical allocation method and the zero sum game DEA(ZSG-DEA)model,the model proposed in this thesis introduces a carbonization index,comprehensively considering the historical characteristics of carbon emissions efficiency and energy consumption,and has higher practical guidance significance.Therefore,the allocation of carbon emission rights in each province should fully take into account the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emissions in each province,the historical changes in energy consumption and carbon emissions in each province,follow the objective law that cannot be separated between energy consumption and carbon emissions,reasonably allocate carbon emission rights,and guide provinces to benchmark and gradually adjust the pace of industrial transformation through carbon emission efficiency to achieve the dual goals of economic development and green transformation.