A Study On The Dynamic Relationship Between Green Finance,Economic Development And Carbon Emissions Based On PVAR Model

Green and low-carbon economic and social development is a key link to achieve high-quality development.Green finance can guide market funds to flow to green and environmental protection industries,thus promoting green technology progress and ecological industrial structure,and ultimately having an important impact on carbon emission efficiency and economic development mode.In this context,integrating green finance,carbon emission and economic development into a unified research framework and exploring the dynamic relationship among them is conducive to clarifying the path for the high-quality development of green finance and economy in China.In this paper,panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2021 are selected as research samples,and PVAR model is established to conduct empirical research on the dynamic relationship between green finance,economic development and carbon emissions.Firstly,the entropy method is used to construct a comprehensive index of green finance development from five dimensions: green credit,green securities,green insurance,green investment and carbon finance.Secondly,by using Arc GIS software,the spatial distribution of green finance in 2005 and 2021 was drawn,and the development level and regional distribution structure of green finance in our country were outlined.Finally,based on the GMM model,impulse response function and variance decomposition,the dynamic relationship between green finance,economic development and carbon emissions is studied.The results show that: First,from the perspective of time,the overall development level of green finance in China presents an increasing trend year by year,and with 2013 as the cut-off point,2005-2012 is the rapid growth stage of green finance in China,and 2013-2021 is the steady development stage of green finance in China.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the development level of green finance in China presents an obvious agglomeration form,from the eastern coastal zone in the early stage of development to the blocky cluster spreading from the eastern coastal area to the central area at present.Second,in the short term,the development of green finance has no significant impact on economic development and carbon emission intensity,while carbon emission intensity has a negative impact on the development of green finance.In the long run,green finance,economic development and carbon emission intensity all have strong economic inertia and obvious self-reinforcing effect.The continuous development of green finance can significantly reduce carbon emission intensity and promote economic development.The promoting effect of carbon emission intensity on economic development is also relatively obvious.Thirdly,the results of heterogeneity study show that at the present stage,green finance development in eastern and central China has a more significant promoting effect on carbon emission reduction.Economic development in eastern China has the strongest positive effect on green finance development,and there is a strong positive correlation between economic development and carbon emission intensity in most regions except eastern China.Finally,combined with the research conclusions of this paper,this paper proposes policy suggestions for coordinating and optimizing the dynamic relationship among green finance,carbon emission and high-quality economic development from the aspects of improving green finance policies,strengthening inter-regional correlation and giving play to the guiding role of financial institutions.