Research On Financing Risk Assessment Of Cogeneration PPP Project

With the intensification of series of problems such as global pollution and climate deterioration and soon on,it has become a global consciousness to develop clean energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.As the main force of energy conservation and emission reduction,the Energy industry,which account for a large share of carbon emissions,needs to improve the utilization rate of fossil energy,vigorously develops renewable energy and accelerate the reconstruction and optimization of energy pattern in order to achieve the Double carbon target.Cogeneration,as an energy-saving and environmental protection project that helps promoting energy transformation,is increasingly favored by local governments.Local governments have been promoting the development of cogeneration industries by cooperating with social capita by introducing PPP model.However,with more and more cogeneration PPP projects are launched,the financing risk has become a common concern for both governments and social capitalists due to the high investment and long payback period of the projects,the incomplete domestic regulatory system,and the lack of judgment of social capitalists on their own financing ability.Therefore,it is particularly important to study the financing risks of cogeneration PPP projects and evaluate them scientifically and reasonably in order to identify and control them effectively.Firstly,this Dissertation analyzes the background of cogeneration PPP project research and the current situation of PPP project risk research at home and abroad,and determines the research topic as financing risk evaluation of cogeneration PPP project,based on which,the theoretical knowledge of PPP model and cogeneration and the research methodology applied in this Dissertation are introduced as the theoretical basis of this Dissertation.Secondly,from the perspective of the whole project life cycle,we analyze the financing risk nodes of the whole process of cogeneration PPP projects,identify the financing risk factors,combined the WSR methodology with the literature on PPP project financing risks in the past 10 years,and established a preliminary financing risk evaluation index system in three dimensions: Wuli,Shili and Renli,and further consult experts through questionnaires to The preliminary indexes are optimized and finally constructed into a financing risk evaluation index system for CHP PPP projects.Then,in view of the complex and diversed characteristics of financing risks of cogeneration PPP projects,the ANP network hierarchical analysis method is used to determine the weight of risk evaluation indicators,and considering that the financing risk indicators of cogeneration PPP projects are mostly "gray" and“fuzzy”,the Gray Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is combined to build the cogeneration PPP project financing The risk evaluation model of cogeneration PPP project is combined with the Gray Fuzzy integrated evaluation method.Finally,we evaluate the financing risk level of a domestic Biomass cogeneration PPP project in a county as an example,and analyze the evaluation results to verify the effectiveness of the model.The evaluation results show that the financing risk evaluation value of the domestic waste cogeneration PPP project is 4.7824,and the financing risk level is between average risk and significant risk but toward to significant risk,and the financing risk evaluation model proposed in this Dissertation is more suitable for reality.The project’s financing risk accounts for the highest dimension is the human dimension,followed by the physical dimension and the factual dimension.In the financing risk management,the secondary financing risk indicators are divided into high and low risks for more targeted and feasible management.Combining the full analysis and the current situation of CHP development,this Dissertation concludes with the prevention strategies of financing risks for CHP PPP projects from the perspective of government,social capitalist and project company respectively,in order to provide reference suggestions for risk management of such projects.