Coupling Coordination Study Of The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic-Energy-Air System And Its Forecast

With nine years of in-depth implementation of the major national strategy of BeijingTianjin-Hebei cooperative development,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has made leaps and bounds in terms of economic level,optimization of energy consumption structure and environmental pollution control.The economic,energy and air environment as three fundamental systems have a profound impact on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in achieving synergistic and high-quality development.The study and analysis of the economic-energy system,economic-air system,energy-air system and economic-energyair system synergies will provide important guidance for the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region’s ternary system to reach a new level both better and faster.The integrated development of the economic system,the energy system and the air system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is measured by applying the TOPSIS integrated evaluation model with the fused integrated weights.To explore the linkages and synergies between the different systems,an optimized coupling and coordination model is constructed to measure the level of coupling and coordination between the economic-energy-air system and the binary systems within it.Finally,a new discrete grey model in adjacent accumulation is used to predict the changes in the coordination level of the economic-energy-air system and the different binary systems within the BeijingTianjin-Hebei region in 2023 to 2027.The results show that the combined development levels of the economic,energy and air systems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region show an overall upward trend from 2015 to 2021,but the increase in the combined development levels is in descending order for the energy system,the economic system and the air system.Measuring the coupling degree of the economic-energy-air system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the different binary systems within it,it was found that the coupling degree of the systems was generally at a strong level during the study period,with the exception of the year2020 when the impact of the new coronary pneumonia led to a decline in the level of development of the economic system and a clear decline in the coupling degree of the binary and ternary systems linked to the economic system.In terms of the overall coordination of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,only the level of coordination of the economy-air system increases from primary coordination in 2015 to good coordination in2021,while the coordination of the economy-energy,energy-air and economy-energy-air systems all show an increase from primary coordination in 2015 to general coordination in 2021.In terms of forecasting the level of coordination derived from the combined level of the systems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,it was found that the level of coordination,whether consisting of binary or ternary systems,is expected to reach a good level of coordination by 2023,and the coordination levels of the economic-air system and the energy-air system are predicted to be the first to achieve a high quality of coordination by 2027.