Research On Oil Price Fluctuation And Its Multidimensional Impact On Petroleum Enterprises

On April 20,2020,the international oil price experienced the biggest fluctuation in history.The WTI 05 contract price of the New York Mercantile Exchange plummeted305.97% to close at-37.63 dollars per barrel,which was the first time that the world crude oil futures price was negative in history.In the new era,the characteristics of oil price fluctuations have undergone some new changes,becoming more wide and high frequency.In this new situation,oil companies have also received more attention from the fluctuations of oil prices.At present,there are few literatures on the comprehensive impact of oil price fluctuations on oil enterprises at home and abroad,and few researches to divide the characteristic changes of oil prices and oil enterprises after extreme fluctuations into groups by time.Therefore,based on the study of oil price volatility,this paper further explores its multi-dimensional impact on oil enterprises.This paper first takes the price fluctuation of Brent crude oil futures as the research object,compares the fitting effects of various GARCH models,and selects the best GJR model to fit and analyze the logarithmic rate of return of Brent crude oil futures prices.In 2020,the sub-range of extreme price fluctuations,whether the fluctuation characteristics have changed to some extent.After that,this paper explores the multi-dimensional impact of international oil price fluctuations on oil companies.After research and analysis,three indicators of oil company stock price,oil company investment and investor confidence in oil companies are selected for multi-dimensional analysis.At the same time,a case study is carried out on the response of oil companies.The research results found that: First,oil price fluctuations are characterized by aggregation,peaks and thick tails,long memory and asymmetry.In the extreme volatility sub-range in 2020,and the nature of Brent crude oil futures price fluctuations will change,with peaks and thick tails and asymmetry.Increased volatility,volatility aggregation and long memory decline,that is,oil price volatility is wider and higher frequency and unsustainable.Secondly,the volatility of Brent crude oil price is highly correlated with the stock price of oil companies,and the correlation of oil exploration and development companies is greater than that of oil equipment service companies.In the extreme volatility sub-range in 2020,the impact of international oil price fluctuations on companies in the oil exploration and development industry will increase.The impact on companies in the oil equipment and service industries has hardly changed;the fluctuation of international crude oil prices has a significant positive correlation with the investment of oil companies.After 2020,the correlation coefficient will become larger,indicating that when oil prices fall sharply,managers of oil companies tend to reduce corporate investment more significantly;through qualitative analysis,it is found that after extreme fluctuations in oil prices,investors’ confidence in oil companies will decline,but national oil companies are smaller affected.At the end of the article,taking the five major oil companies as an example,it analyzes the six major measures taken by them,and provides reference for other oil companies.