Research On Financial Factors Of China’s Thermal Coal Price

China’s energy endowment is characterized by "rich coal,poor oil and little gas".The proven coal reserves account for more than 90% of China’s fossil energy and33.8% of the world’s coal reserves.Under the premise of large quantity of coal production and consumption,high proportion of coal production and consumption,and difficult to replace on a large scale,how to make good use of coal,a stable,economic and self-guaranteed resource with a high degree,is of great significance to China’s energy transformation and economic development.Thermal coal,as one of the important varieties of domestic coal resources,financial property more obvious,so this paper from the demand,supply and alternative path selection eight financial variables,including the money supply,credit scale,the exchange rate,thermal power plate stock index and chemical plate plate stock index stock index,building materials,international crude oil futures prices,coal futures prices,To study the impact of thermal coal price index.On the basis of qualitative analysis of financial variables’ influence on thermal coal price transmission mechanism,this paper uses vector error correction model,impulse response analysis,variance decomposition and other methods to study the influence of financial variables on thermal coal price from a static perspective.The results showed that: long time money supply,exchange rate,thermal power plate stock index and chemical plate stock index,the international crude oil futures prices for thermal coal prices have a significant positive influence,credit scale and building materials plate stock index for thermal coal prices have a significant negative impact,and the international coal futures price of domestic thermal coal prices influence degree is low.At the same time,the paper uses state space model to study the dynamic relationship between financial variables and thermal coal price at different time points.The results show that in a short period of time,there is a positive and negative bidirectional relationship between financial variables and thermal coal price.From the mean value,money supply,credit scale and thermal coal price index change in the same direction.Exchange rate,thermal power plate stock price index,building materials plate stock price index,international crude oil futures price and thermal coal price index showed a reverse change relationship;In general,money supply,thermal power stock index and building materials stock index have the most obvious influence on thermal coal price,while coal chemical stock index and international coal futures price have no obvious influence on thermal coal price.Through qualitative and quantitative analysis,the paper from the aspects of government,financial markets,three coal enterprises combining with the financial perspective,by strengthening the government macroeconomic regulation and control,broadening the channels for financial markets to participate in and promote the positive transformation of coal enterprises,provide a reference for our country new coal price forming mechanism,promote the healthy development of the coal market.