Study On The "Local-Neighborhood" Effect Of Carbon Emission Trading Policy From The Perspective Of Incentives And Disincentives

China’s rapid economic growth has resulted in significant amounts of fossil energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions,heightening the tension between economic development and environmental protection.Carbon emission trading policies are seen as a vital tool for reducing carbon emissions and achieving win-win economic and environmental benefits under the double pressure of the “double carbon” aim and economic development goal.There is an unavoidable association between areas as a result of the demonstration impact and competition effect.As a result,carbon emission trading policies affect not only the intensity of carbon emissions in the policy regions,but also the intensity of carbon emissions in neighboring regions,resulting in a “local-neighborhood” effect.Furthermore,under the principles of maximizing profits and minimizing costs,both green innovation and energy rebound are viable options for businesses when weighing costs and benefits.And therefore,it is critical to consider how to maximize the incentive effect of green innovation,lessen the deterrent effects of energy rebound,enhance carbon trading policies,encourage regional collaborative carbon emission reduction,and advance the “dual carbon” goal.This study integrated carbon emission emission trading policies,carbon emission intensity,green innovation,and energy rebound into a unified analytical framework from the perspective of “local – neighborhood” to investigate the actual carbon emission reduction effect of carbon emission trading policies.Six carbon trading pilot areas were chosen as an experimental group for a quasi-natural experiment based on data from China’s provincial panel from 2009 to 2020: Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Chongqing,Hubei,and Guangdong.Firstly,parallel trend test,global spatial autocorrelation test,and social network analysis were utilized to observe the evolution trend of regional carbon emission intensity in time dimension,overall spatial dimension,and local spatial dimension from a temporal and spatial perspective.Secondly,a spatial difference-in-differences model based on an endogenous spatio-temporal weight matrix was developed to assess the direct and spillover effects of carbon trading policies on carbon emission intensity,based on the theoretical derivation of the cost minimization and profit maximization objective functions.Then,a mechanism model based on mediating and regulating effects was built.The possible mechanism of green innovation incentive effect and energy rebound inhibition effect was further explored from the perspective of green innovation and rebound effect,and the following conclusions were drawn:(1)The spatial-temporal evolution trend and spatial correlation analysis of regional carbon emission intensity discovered that the carbon emission intensity of non-pilot areas was greater than that of pilot areas,and that since the implementation of carbon trading policies,the carbon emission intensity of non-pilot areas has increased significantly,and the gap between pilot and non-pilot areas has widened.Moreover,there were strong relationships and dependencies between regional carbon emission intensity.All of the pilot regions have a strong correlation with other regions,but the majority of the relationship stems from the neighboring regions.(2)The “local-neighborhood” effect of carbon emission trading policies on regional carbon emission intensity demonstrated that these policies had a direct driving effect on reducing regional carbon emission intensity,but they also caused an increase in carbon emission intensity in neighboring regions as a result of factor siphoning,pollution transfer,and spatial competition mechanisms.After being put to the test for counterfactual robustness,lag impact,change window period,and control of other pertinent environmental policies,this conclusion was still significant.Heterogeneity analysis revealed that regions with high carbon emission intensities experienced a greater driving effect of carbon trading policies on emission reduction than regions with low carbon emission rates.Compared to free quota,mixed quota had a more powerful driving effect.Additionally,it was discovered that the growth poles in Beijing and Tianjin polarized the peripheral regions,the growth poles in Shanghai and Chongqing positively diffused emission reductions into the neighboring regions,and the interaction between the Guangdong growth pole and the neighboring regions prevented the carbon trading policies from having a significant emission reduction promotion effect on the province and its neighboring provinces.(3)According to a study on the green innovation incentive effect,green innovation was generally encouraged in the pilot areas by carbon emission trading policies.The policy spillover effect has an inspiring impact for green innovation in surrounding provinces under the responsibilities of spatial demonstration and competition mechanisms.Furthermore,the study discovered that while government competition and its interaction terms with market competition increased the polarization effect of the growth pole,which was conducive to green innovation in pilot areas,government competition severely hampered the policy spillover effect of carbon trading policies on green innovation.According to the “cost effect”,market competition reduced the driving effect of carbon trading policies on green innovation while increasing the spillover effect.Finally,the green innovation incentive mechanism results demonstrated that carbon trading policies reduced carbon emission intensity in pilot regions by stimulating green innovation,but increased carbon emission intensity in nearby areas.(4)The investigation of the energy rebound inhibition effect discovered that carbon trading policies boosted the energy rebound effect in pilot areas due to the maximization of corporate profits principle as well as in non-pilot areas due to the spatial diffusion impact.Additionally,the study discovered that carbon trading policies increased the energy rebound effect in pilot regions by improving the total factor carbon emission efficiency,which led to a reduction in the policy’s ability to reduce carbon emissions.However,under the warning effect of environmental pollution,it was advantageous to lessen the energy rebound in neighboring regions.Finally,the findings of the energy rebound inhibition mechanism demonstrated that the energy rebound effect not only hindered the driving effect of carbon trading policies on emission reductions,but also the intermediary influence of green innovation on emission reductions.Based on the aforementioned findings,this paper summarized and clarified four policy implications in order to serve as a reference for promoting the “double carbon” goal and promoting green and sustainable development,including enhancing the national carbon emission trading market system and guarantee system;Optimize incentive and constraint mechanisms to create mutually beneficial economic and environmental benefits;Establish regional cooperation and exchange systems to increase regional collaborative carbon emission reduction capacity;giving “viable government” and “efficient markets” full play as complementing processes.