Research On The Prediction Of Industrial Carbon Emission Peak And Carbon Emission Reduction Countermeasuress In Jiangsu Province

At the present stage,the process of economic globalisation is accelerating and with it the demand for energy is increasing,so the greenhouse effect is intensifying and CO2 emissions are becoming increasingly serious.In order to actively respond to climate change,China has put forward new targets to achieve "carbon peaking" by 2030 and "carbon neutral" by 2060.Based on this background,this paper takes Jiangsu province as the research object and uses sustainable development theory and low carbon economy as the theoretical guide to predict the future industrial carbon emission peak in Jiangsu province and its carbon reduction countermeasures.Firstly,it introduces the current social development,energy consumption and industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province,and uses the carbon emission factor method to calculate the industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to2020 based on the industrial energy consumption data of Jiangsu Province.The degree of factors is analysed,and the ridge regression method is used to determine the parameters and further derive the formula for industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu province;again,combined with the scenario analysis method,the period 2021-2035 is divided into three time periods,with 2021-2025 as a period,2026-2030 as a period and 2031-2035 as the last period,and the future development of each influencing factor is set as Low carbon scenario,baseline scenario and strong emission scenario,and then carry out effective and reasonable analysis;finally,based on the prediction results under the set three scenarios,reasonable strategies and suggestions are put forward for the low carbon development of industry in Jiangsu Province.The following conclusions are drawn from the research process:(1)The industrial sector in Jiangsu Province accounts for a relatively high share of carbon emissions in terms of its energy consumption share.(2)The main factors influencing industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province include population size,economic output,industrial carbon emission intensity,energy structure ratio and urbanisation rate.The five factors mentioned above have the highest to lowest degree of influence on industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province: population size,urbanisation rate,energy structure ratio,industrial carbon emission intensity and economic output.(3)Using the scenario analysis method to reasonably predict industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province from 2021 to 2035,it can be concluded that industrial carbon emissions under all three scenarios show a trend of increasing and then decreasing,with the difference that under the low carbon scenario,Jiangsu Province reaches its peak in 2025,with its industrial carbon emissions peaking at 455.506 million tonnes,and under both the baseline scenario and the strong emissions scenario it will reach its peak in In the baseline scenario,carbon emissions peak at 469,699,400 tonnes,while in the strong emissions scenario,carbon emissions peak at 486,862,400 tonnes.(4)Based on the prediction results under the three scenarios,reasonable strategies and suggestions are proposed for the low-carbon development of industry in Jiangsu Province: adjusting the high-energy consuming industries to promote the development of low-carbon industries;optimising the energy structure,focusing on clean energy;actively promoting technological innovation to promote energy saving and emission reduction;strengthening the government’s investment in research and development,introducing advanced technology and professional talents;strengthening the construction of industrial ecological parks and paying attention to the protection of the ecological environment.Pay attention to the protection of the ecological environment.Figure [11] Table [28] Reference [80]...