Spatio-temporal Variations And Diffusion Model Analysis Of COVID-19 Spread In China From A Multi-scale Perspective

Significant public health emergencies have a profound impact on regional human activities.Geography,geography,which treats spatial analysis and man-land relationship as the main method and object,plays an indispensable role in the study of infectious diseases.In December 2019,due to the sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 in Wuhan,Hubei province,society,economy and other aspects of China have been greatly affected.Based on the background,this paper starts with multi-scale spatial units such as regional,provincial and municipal areas to delineate the developmental stages of the epidemic,and explores the temporal changes using coefficient of variation,Thiel’s index and Moran’s index,using the spatial interpolation,mean center and standard deviation ellipse to explore the spatial evolutionary characteristics of the spread of COV1D-19 in China,using the buffer zone and nuclear density to explore the spread pattern of the epidemic,and using the OLS to analyze the influencing factors.The results of the study are as followings:First,from December 1st,2019 to March 17th,2020,the characteristics of time-series change of the spread of COVID-19 in China showed an overall S-shaped curve upward trend.According to the change of growth rate,it can be divided into four periods:the latent period,the rapid outbreak period,the slow growth period,and the stable period.Second,the spatial differences between zones in terms of confirmed cases are large,from the order of the big to small,it is:Central,Eastern,Western,Northeast.At the provincial scale,the main outbreak sites of the epidemic are in the central part of China,all bordering or adjacent to Hubei Province,showing an overall cross shape with Hubei Province as the center.Third,the diffusion pattern of COVID-19 in China includes contact diffusion and hierarchical diffusion as well as migration diffusion,and the spatial diffusion trend shows obvious geographical proximity effect and hierarchical effect of high-grade nodes.Fourth,The factor regression coefficient is sorted from large to small as transportation,geographic distance,medical resources and population scale.Except for transportation and population scale,which showed positive correlation,others all showed negative correlation.In view of the spatial and temporal patterns of epidemic spread obtained from the above multi-scale analysis,this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions:at the national level,strengthen the early warning and emergency system of infectious disease pandemic.Effective control of the source of infection and cut off the route of transmission,strengthen disease surveillance.Promote interdisciplinary scientific development,promote in-depth research on pathogenesis and drug research and development.Do a good job in the construction of emergency support system.At the local government level,we should strictly prevent the spread of the epidemic,make full use of the smart city system,and arrange epidemic prevention forces efficiently and accurately;Formulate epidemic prevention measures according to local conditions to deal with the influx of people from abroad and in China.At the level of rural government,we should choose a more precise regional scale for risk early warning;All kinds of reasonable ways should be used to publicize the epidemic situation and prevention and control measures,and effective measures should be taken to avoid the aggregation of rural personnel.