| As China’s aging population becomes increasingly prominent and people’s yearning for a better life continues to improve,PPP projects combined with medical and old-age care can effectively alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of medical and old-age care resources.However,at present,the relevant mechanism of PPP projects combining medical care and nursing is in the stage of refinement in China,and the risk sharing mechanism is not yet mature.Moreover,it is characterized by high investment and high risk,and social capital will bear large risks,resulting in low participation.Based on this,this paper studies the risk factors identification,evaluation model and risk response measures of PPP projects combining medical care from the perspective of social capital.First of all,through literature research,policy analysis and WBS-RBS framework model,the risk factors faced by social capital in the medical-care combination PPP project were identified,and 42 main risk factors affecting the PPP project from the perspective of social capital were preliminatively determined.Then,AHP-GRA method was used to screen the identified risk factors.After removing 9 factors with weak correlation degree,33 risk indicators were finally established,and a risk evaluation index system of PPP projects combining medical care was constructed.Then,variable assumptions are made according to the logical relationship between risk factors of medical-care PPP projects,structural equation model diagrams are constructed according to the project process and risk evaluation system,and relevant data of risk evaluation of medical-care PPP projects are obtained through questionnaire survey.Using SPSS 25.0 software on the system data analysis,the reliability and validity of using Amos 24.0 software structural equation model is established,and the adaptation degree test and model modification,and then through the model path coefficient is calculated weight value of each variable to get key risk indicators,the results show that:(1)in the primary index,weight order as follows: Project financing risk(0.170),medical care market risk(0.157),operation transfer risk(0.147),legal policy risk(0.146),management decision risk(0.136),project construction risk(0.129),political and economic risk(0.115).(2)Among the secondary indicators,laws related to PPP mode,financing cost,project approval,project quality,participation power of medical resources,homogeneous/unique competition,and project residual value account for a large weight.Finally,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted to determine the grade of risk indicators combined with specific practical cases.The results show that: Project financing risk(0.5276)has the highest score,which belongs to medium and high risk.The rest are as follows: medical care market risk(0.4860)belongs to medium risk,operation handover risk(0.4814)belongs to medium risk,legal policy risk(0.4386)belongs to medium and low risk.The risk of management decision(0.4202)belongs to medium low risk,the risk of project construction(0.4196)belongs to medium low risk,and the risk of political economy(0.3932)belongs to low risk.Therefore,social capital should pay special attention to project financing risk,medical care market risk and operation handover risk,and take relevant measures.Adopting scientific and objective methods to evaluate and judge the risks of PPP projects combining medical care and nursing care is conducive to social capital’s understanding of risks and taking targeted risks at key nodes,so as to improve the participation enthusiasm of social capital.From a social perspective,to further promote the application of PPP model in our country medical pension industry,to promote the development of medical keep combining the PPP project. |
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