Estimation Of Average Life Expectancy And Analysis Of Differences In Causes Of Death In Jiangsu Province

Healthy China and active aging strategies are inseparable from the measurement and evaluation of health level,and the average life expectancy is an important tool for measurement and evaluation;Jiangsu Province has the typical characteristics of developed eastern regions,that is,high economic development level,low fertility level,and high degree of aging.It is a microcosm of China’s future development and has practical significance for the research on the average life expectancy of the population in Jiangsu Province.This thesis compares data from different sources,estimates age-specific mortality rates based on adjustment methods such as the maximum value method and the joint probability method,and uses the complete life table method to estimate the average life expectancy in Jiangsu Province and compares it with the previous calculation results.Arriaga decomposition model to decompose sex differences in life expectancy at birth.Based on the perspective of aging,formula derivation and empirical simulation methods are used to study the effect of age-specific mortality changes in the aging group(65 years old and above)on the average life expectancy of the aging group(average life expectancy at the age of 65).Based on the perspective of de-cause and age structure,the differences in de-death are decomposed using the complete life table method,the de-cause life table method and the Arriaga decomposition model.The research shows that there may be some underestimation in the past estimates of average life expectancy in Jiangsu Province.The gender difference is mainly concentrated in the middle-aged and old age group,ie 50-89 years old.Under the existing age-specific population and age structure in Jiangsu Province,only random perturbation hardly affects the average life expectancy estimate of the elderly group,and the age-specific mortality error offset is effective,but the age-specific underreporting rate will greatly affect the average life expectancy estimate of the elderly group,when the underreporting rate exceeds 50%,the average life expectancy of the aging group will deviate from the true value.Diseases of the circulatory system have the greatest impact,and tumors affect younger people and are one of the reasons for the gender difference in average life expectancy.