| Objective Echinococcosis is a major public health and economic problem that needs to be solved in Qinghai Province,where the pasture area accounts for 60% of the total area of the province and is one of the five major livestock bases in China.This study intends to investigate the spatial distribution,spatial autocorrelation and spatial aggregation of echinococcosis prevalence in pastoral areas of Qinghai Province from2016 to 2019.Using the prevalence of echinococcosis in pastoral areas in 2019 to predict the prevalence of echinococcosis in the whole province of Qinghai.Exploring the correlation between the spatial distribution characteristics of echinococcosis in pastoral areas of Qinghai Province and economic,medical and meteorological factors,and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control strategy of echinococcosisMethods Data on the prevalence of echinococcosis in pastoral areas of Qinghai Province from 2016-2018 were collected,and the prevalence in 2019 was obtained by random whole-group sampling.Echinococcosis prevalence thematic maps and threedimensional trend map were created using Arc GIS software,and spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed.Moran scatter plots were created by Geo Da to determine the mode of aggregation of echinococcosis.Sa TScan was used to determine the specific location of aggregation and the relative risk within the aggregation area by simple spatial scanning and spatio-temporal scanning.Kriging interpolation was used to predict the entire province prevalence of echinococcosis.Economic,medical,and meteorological factors were collected,and spatial regression models were used to explore the factors influencing the spatial distribution of echinococcosis in pastoral areas of Qinghai province in two dimensions: global(spatial lag model)and local(geographically weighted regression model).Results The prevalence of echinococcosis in pastoral areas of Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2019 showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,with the mean value rising first from 0.96% in 2016 to 1.36% in 2018 and then decreasing to 1.28%in 2019.1.Spatial distribution map shows that the areas with high prevalence of echinococcosis from 2016 to 2019 were mainly concentrated in Jiuzhi,Dari,Banma,and Gander counties in Guoluo Prefecture,southeastern Qinghai,and Gangcha County in Haibei Prefecture,northeastern China.2.The three-dimensional trend map showed that the trend of echinococcosis prevalence during these four years was basically the same,showing a trend of first increasing then slightly decreasing from west to east and gradual upward from north to south.3.The results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the prevalence of echinococcosis in pastoral areas of Qinghai Province in 2016(Z=5.34,P < 0.001),2017(Z=5.48,P < 0.001),2018(Z=5.36,P < 0.001)and 2019(Z=5.62,P < 0.001)all had spatial autocorrelation,showing spatial aggregation.4.Moran`s I scatter plot and local Moran`s I showed that the aggregation patterns of echinococcosis in pastoral areas were mainly high-high aggregation(Dari County,Banma County,Jiuzhi County,Gand County,Machin County)and low-low aggregation(Zhiduo County,Jianza County,Gui De County)5.2016 purely spatial scan results show that there is one primary aggregation area((32.910000 N,100.530000 E)/128.54 km,LLR=10753.65,RR=11.19,P < 0.001)and three secondary aggregation areas: secondary aggregation area 1((33.480000 N,99.410000 E)/ 90.28 km,LLR=5158.57,RR=7.94,P < 0.001),secondary aggregation area 2((34.760000 N,98.210000 E)/145.05 km,LLR=551.78,RR=2.57,P < 0.001)and secondary aggregation area 3((34.860000 N.,95.130000 E)/200.0001),95.130000E)/200.79 km,LLR=358.83,RR=2.09,P < 0.001).The number of aggregation areas is decreasing from 2016 to 2019,and the extent of the aggregation areas is shrinking.The results of the spatial and temporal scans from 2016-2019 show that there is only one aggregation area,and the aggregation time from January 2017 to January 2018,including four pastoral counties,Banma,Gyuzhi,Dari,and Gander,and residents in the agglomeration area are 9.07 times more at risk of developing encapsulated worm disease than in other areas.6.The kriging prediction map shows that the high incidence of echinococcosis in Qinghai Province is mainly concentrated in the southeastern region,and the low incidence is concentrated in the northeastern and northwestern regions,with a decreasing trend of disease risk from south to north.7.The annual precipitation(Z=2.10,P=0.036),population density(Z=-2.34,P=0.019)and medical/nursing ratio(Z=-2.23,P=0.026)had significant effects on the distribution of echinococcosis.Annual precipitation was positively correlated with the number of cases of echinococcosis,and population density and health care ratio were negatively correlated with the number of cases of echinococcosis.Among them,annual precipitation had the greatest impact on places such as Jiuzhi and Banma counties,population density had the greatest impact on Menyuan,Jianzha and Tongren counties,and Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture was the most affected area by the medical/nursing ratio.Conclusion The areas with higher prevalence of echinococcosis in pastoral areas of Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2019 were Guoluo and Yushu Prefecture,and the distribution was spatially autocorrelated,showing a certain aggregation.Annual precipitation,population density and medical/nursing ratio were identified as influencing factors for echinococcosis in pastoral areas of Qinghai Province.This provides a scientific basis for determining the key prevention and control areas of echinococcosis in pastoral areas of Qinghai Province,reasonably allocating medical and health care resources,and formulating preventive and control measures for echinococcosis. |
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