Change Trend Of Disease Burden Of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease In China From 1990 To 2019 And Prediction In The Next Five Years

Objective:Describe and analyze the trends of incidence,illness,death and DALY of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)in China from 1990 to 2019,predict the disease burden in the next five years,provide data support for the Ministry of health to formulate relevant strategies and measures,and provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of COPD in China in the future.Research method:From the database of global burden of disease study 2019(gbd2019),this study extracted the data of the incidence,number of patients,number of deaths and disability adjusted life years of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China from 1990 to 2019,and made a descriptive analysis of the disease burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China according to gender,age and year.In order to reflect the trend of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease burden in China over the past thirty years,the joinpoint model was used to describe the trend of incidence rate,morbidity,mortality and DALY rate of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China from 1990 to 2019.The incidence rate,incidence rate,mortality rate and DALY rate of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China from 1990 to 2016 were established by R 4.1.0.ARIMA model was established by using the data from 2017 to 2019.Finally,the ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence,prevalence,mortality and DALY rate of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China from 2020 to 2024.Result:(1)The incidence rate and incidence of COPD in China were rising from 1990 to 2019,but the incidence rate and prevalence rate decreased after age standardization.The overall mortality rate of COPD and DALY showed a downward trend.In the past 30 years,the incidence rate and prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China women are always higher than that in men,and the trend of their rise is more significant.The mortality rate and DALY rate of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in men and women showed a downward trend.In the early 1990s,the mortality rate of COPD in men was lower than that in women.Since 1995,the mortality rate of men was higher than that of women,and the difference gradually widened.The DALY rate of men was higher than that of women in each year.(2)The joinpoint model results show that the incidence rate of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China over the past 30 years can be divided into 6 time periods:1990—1997,1997—2004,2004—2010,2010—2014,2014—2017 and 2017—2019 years.The overall incidence rate is on the rise,the fastest rising rate is 2010—2014 years,and the average annual increase is 3.6%(P<0.05).The change trend of prevalence can be divided into:1990—1997,1997—2004,2004—2010,2010—2014,2014—2017 and 2017—2019.The prevalence showed a trend of first rising,then falling and then rising.The change trend of mortality can be divided into:1990—1993,1993—1998,1998—2004,2004—2007,2007—2015 and 2015—2019.The mortality showed a trend of first rising,then falling and then rising.The change trend of DALY rate can be divided into 1990—1992,1992—2004,2004—2007,2007—2014,2014—2017 and 2017—2019.The DALY rate first increased,then decreased and then increased.(3)In 2019,a large proportion of the DALY rate of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China can be attributed to six risk factors,including 50.50%due to smoking,25.37%due to atmospheric particulate pollution,19.96%due to occupational exposure,12.03%due to second-hand smoke,6.89%due to environmental ozone pollution and 5.05%due to household air pollution.(4)The ARIMA model has good fitting effect.It is predicted that the incidence rate,morbidity,mortality and DALY rate of COPD in China in 2024 are 316.68/1010000,3352.25/10 10000 and 76.75/10 Vanward 1494.05/10 million respectively.Conclusion:China incidence rate and incidence rate of COPD increased from 1990 to 2019,and mortality and DALY rate showed a downward trend.However,mortality and DALY rates increased in 2017 and 2015 respectively.The incidence rate,morbidity,mortality and DALY rate of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the population under 40 years old did not change significantly in 1990-2019,and were at a low level,and then increased rapidly with age.Smoking has brought a heavy burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China,and air pollution is also closely related to the disease burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.The incidence,prevalence,mortality and DALY rate of COPD in China in 2020 2024 were rising.The ARIMA model has a good fitting effect in fitting COPD incidence rate,morbidity rate,mortality rate and DALY rate.It can provide reference for short-term prediction of disease burden.