Study On Risk Prediction Model Of Hyperuricemia

BackgroundIn recent years,the prevalence of hyperuricemia in China has continued to rise,and has become the fourth largest chronic disease in China,which is closely related to chronic kidney disease,cardiovascular disease,gout and other diseases.Through retrospective cohort construction of risk prediction model to predict the important factors of hyperuricemia,intervention can effectively reduce the prevalence of hyperuricemia.This study used the physical examination data of employees in Guangzhou to analyze the prevalence trend and important risk factors of hyperuricemia,in order to provide relevant suggestions for the prevention and treatment of hyperuricemia.PurposeUse the physical examination data of a tertiary A hospital from 2015 to 2021 to understand the epidemic trend of hyperuricemia in Guangzhou,use the data from 2018 to 2021 to build a retrospective cohort,analyze and screen out the important predictors of hyperuricemia,build a risk prediction model,and evaluate the effectiveness of the model..MethodThe prevalence of hyperuricemia was understood by analyzing the blood test data of the subjects using the health examination data.For counting data,this study used composition ratio(%)to describe,and chi square analysis was used for inter group comparison;For measurement data,if the data obeys normal distribution and meets the homogeneity of variance,the comparison between groups shall adopt the analysis of variance.If the conditions are not met,the nonparametric test shall be used.Cochran Armitage trend test was used to analyze the epidemic trend of hyperuricemia.Cox risk proportional regression model was used to screen hyperuricemia risk factors,Nomogram model was used to build a risk prediction model,and DCA curve was used to evaluate the clinical value of the model.Results(1)From 2015 to 2021,the blood uric acid level of men and women in Guangzhou showed a "U" shaped growth with the increase of years,and the prevalence of hyperuricemia among men and women in the age group of 60 years and above reached the highest value.The prevalence rate of hyperuricemia in the physical examination population with both overweight and hypertension in different population characteristics was the highest,both exceeding 50%.The prevalence rate of hyperuricemia in the population with different characteristics who simultaneously suffered from hypertriglyceridemia was the lowest,less than 30%;(2)The incidence rate of the total population of Guangzhou workers from 2018 to 2021 was 155.74/person year,and the incidence density of men was higher than that of women.The incidence density of male employees shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing with age,while the incidence density of female employees shows an upward trend with age.The incidence density of male and female employees aged 60 and above tends to be similar.(3)Cox risk proportional regression model was used to screen 13 predictors of hyperuricemia in all employee populations,including gender,systolic blood pressure,total carbon dioxide,creatinine,blood uric acid,white blood cell count,red blood cell distribution width,red blood cell count,hemoglobin,platelet count,fasting blood glucose,low-density lipoprotein cholesterol,high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and so on.The predictors of hyperuricemia in male workers were visceral obesity index,systolic blood pressure,total carbon dioxide,creatinine,blood uric acid,red blood cell distribution width,red blood cell count,fasting blood glucose,triglycerides,low-density lipoprotein cholesterol,high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and other 11 indicators,and hyperuricemia in female workers was predictedConclusion(1)From 2015 to 2021,the prevalence of hyperuricemia among physical examination population in Guangzhou showed an overall upward trend,and reached the highest value in 2021.People with obesity and hypertension need to pay special attention to their own uric acid level,and control and prevent the occurrence and further development of hyperuricemia.(2)A retrospective cohort study found that the incidence density of hyperuricemia in men was higher than that in women,but the incidence density tended to be similar in people aged 60 years and above.Both male and female employees should maintain a healthy lifestyle in their daily lives to control uric acid levels,and medication should also be used to control uric acid levels when they remain high.(3)Based on the COX proportional risk regression model to screen the final predictors,the nomogram model drawn by R software has a good fitting effect in the application of predicting the incidence of hyperuricemia in the staff physical examination population,which can provide a reference for the staff physical examination population to estimate the occurrence of hyperuricemia in the next 1-3 years.