| Objectives:Triple-negative breast cancer(TNBC)has a rapid progression due to its highly heterogeneous and aggressive cellular nature,which has a significant impact on life and health,especially in young women with the disease.The aim of this study was to explore the prognostic factors affecting young triple-negative breast cancer patients,construct and validate a nomogram of overall survival(OS)in young triple-negative breast cancer patients,and predict the OS of clinical young triple-negative breast cancer patients at 3 and 5 years.Methods:We screened TNBC patients aged less than 40 years from 2010 to 2015 in the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results(SEER)cancer registry database to obtain complete clinical baseline information and survival information.Independent risk factors associated with the prognosis of young TNBC patients were identified by using univariate and multivariate Cox regression models to construct nomograms predicting 3-and 5-year survival times for young TNBC patients using calibration curves,the Concordance Index(C-index),the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(ROC)curve,and Decision Curve Analysis(DCA)to test the accuracy of the model.Results:In this study,2170 patients with TNBC were finally included,and these patients were randomly grouped in a 7:3 ratio into the modeling group(n=1522)and the validation group(n=648).The interpretation of the results of the multivariate Cox regression analysis of the modeling group data showed that the patients’ surgical type,histology,T-stage,N-stage,and M-stage were independent prognostic factors affecting the survival time of the patients.Based on the independent prognostic factors identified in the modeling group,the nomogram predicting 3-year and 5-year OS in young TNBC patients was drawn and validated.The C-indexes of 0.768 and 0.771 in the modeling and validation groups,respectively,confirmed the strong identification ability of the nomogram,and the ROC curves drawn confirmed the superiority of our model in clinical application,and the calibration curves showed good prediction accuracy of the nomogram.In addition,the DCA showed that our nomogram has good clinical applicability.Conclusion:A univariate analysis conducted in this study found significant correlations between patient race,marital status,histology,type of breast cancer surgery,whether radiotherapy was given,T stage,N stage,and M stage,and OS.The results of multivariate analysis indicated that surgical modality,tumor pathological type,T stage,N stage,and M stage were independent prognostic factors affecting overall survival in TNBC.This study constructs a nomogram with good predictive performance for the prognosis of young TNBC patients,providing a more accurate overall survival probability,which helps physicians develop individualized treatment plans for their patients. |
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