| Objective:Ruili is on the border between Yunnan and Myanmar.Ruili has become a highincidence area of dengue,HIV/AIDS,and other infectious diseases in China due to its geographical and cultural peculiarities,limitations in economic development and health services,and the prevention and control of local infectious diseases are under great pressure.There has been no report on the impact of strict Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19)measures on notifiable infectious diseases(NIDs)in Ruili.To provide a reference for local infectious disease prevention and control,this study examined the epidemiological characteristics of NIDs in Ruili from 2012 to 2021,as well as the changing trend of other NIDs during COVID-19.Methods:The surveillance data of NIDs and demographic data in Ruili from 2012 to 2021 were obtained from the China Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Information System.Charts and graphs were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics of the classifications A,B,C,NIDs with different transmission routes,and diseases.The incidence of other NIDs(except COVID-19)during COVID-19(2020 and 2021)was compared with the average incidence of 2015-2019 and the previous year.The ARIMA model was constructed to predict the incidence of NIDs in Ruili in 2020 and 2021 and compare the actual value.The fitting effects were assessed using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE).The Wilcoxon test was used to determine whether the difference was statistically significant,and P<0.05 indicated a statistical difference.Results:1.Incidence and death of NIDs in Ruili from 2012 to 2021:A total of 32,840 cases of 24 NIDs were reported,with an average annual incidence of 1646.39/100,000.There was an overall increase from 2012 to 2019 and a continuous decline in 2020 and 2021.There were no class A,17,972 cases of 16 kinds of Class B,and 14,868 cases of 8 kinds of class C were reported.The average annual incidence was 990.90/100,000 and 745.49/100,000,respectively.Regarding the transmission routes,36.62%were gastrointestinal diseases(GD),25.68%were sexually transmitted or blood-borne diseases(STBD),21.84%were respiratory diseases(RD),and 15.86%were natural and vector-borne diseases(NVBD).The top five diseases were hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)(2784/100,000),dengue(14.12/100,000),HIV/AIDS(10.72/100,000),influenza(783/100,000)and tuberculosis(6.98/100,000).229 cases died,with an average annual mortality of 11.53 per 100,000.228 cases were Class B,1 case was Class C,and 96.54%were HIV/AIDS.2.Epidemiological characteristics of NIDs in Ruili from 2012 to 2021:The incidence was high from July to October,accounting for 44.38%.The incidence was highest in the 0-9 age group(5617.65/100,000),followed by the 20-29 age group(1742.99/100,000),30-39 group(1256.71/100,000)and 10-19 group(967.40/100,000).The ratio of male to female cases was 1.57:1.The average annual incidence of males was 1944.27/100,000 and that of females was 1327.91/100,000.The occupations were mainly scattered among children(29.35%),farmers(18.12%),and commercial service workers(13.63%).The top three regional distributions were Mengmao Town(19873 cases),Wanding Town(1598 cases),and Jiexiang Country(1183 cases).3.The incidence of other NIDs during COVID-19 compared with previous years:In 2020,the incidence of other NIDs decreased by 43.16%and 23.02%,compared with 2019 and 2015-2019.The incidence in 2021 decreased by 61.42%and 68.64%compared with that in 2020 and 2015-2019,respectively.In 2020,compared with 2019,the incidence of NVBD,RD,and GD decreased by 81.73%,68.05%,and 25.33%,respectively,while STBD increased by 15.26%;compared with the average from 2015 to 2019,NVBD,RD,and GD decreased by 70.32%,42.31%,and 4.76%,respectively,while STBD increased by 30.32%.In 2021,compared with the average incidence of 2015-2019,the incidence of NVBD,GD,RD,and STBD decreased by 98.81%,98.81%,75.43%,and 38.32%,respectively;compared with 2020,they decreased by 96.01%,63.95%,57.42%,and 52.67%,respectively.In 2020,compared to 2019,dengue,influenza,diarrheal disease,tuberculosis,and HIV/AIDS will decrease by 82.10%,79.36%,69.55%,31.45%,and 10.23%,respectively,and gonorrhea,hepatitis C,and HFMD increased by 52.46%,1.23%,and 0.79%,respectively;compared to the 20152019 average,dengue,influenza,tuberculosis,HIV/AIDS,diarrheal disease and HFMD decreased by 70.12%,49.55%,34.96%,17.70%,4.42%,and 1.98%,gonorrhea and hepatitis C increased by 111.59%and 19.56%,respectively.In 2021,compared to 2020,dengue,HFMD,HIV/AIDS,influenza,hepatitis C,gonorrhea,and tuberculosis decreased by 96.53%,85.27%,70.97%,69.33%,54.95%,46.93%,and 36.92%,and an increase of 53.68%in the incidence of diarrheal diseases;compared to the average of 2015-2019,dengue,HFMD,influenza,HIV/AIDS,tuberculosis,and hepatitis C decreased by 98.96%,85.56%,84.53%,76.11%,58.97%,and 46.14%,respectively.Diarrheal diseases and gonorrhea increased by 46.88%and 12.30%.4.Time series model construction and comparison with actual incidence:ARIMA models were constructed for overall,RD,GD,and STBD,with MAPE of 5.81%,11.38%,9.72%,and 7.54%,respectively,showing good fitting effect.In 2020,the incidence of overall,RD,GD,and NVBD decreased by 7.17%,65.94%,23.18%,and 18.78%,respectively,compared with the expected incidence,while the incidence of STBD increased by 35.15%.In 2021,compared with the expected incidence,the incidence decreased by 65.06%,88.17%,74.64%,99.08%,and 33.85%,respectively.The MAPE of tuberculosis,HFMD,HIV/AIDS,and hepatitis C models were 15.01%,61.09%,13.05%,and 65.18%,respectively.The fitting effect of hand-foot-mouth disease and hepatitis C models was mediocre,while the other models were good.In 2020,the incidence of influenza,tuberculosis,diarrhoeal diseases,dengue,HIV/AIDS,and hepatitis C decreased by 77.09%,27.32%,79.34%,13.86%,25.03%,and 16.18%,respectively,compared with the expected incidence.HFMD and gonorrhea increased by 7.68%and 39.74%,respectively.In 2021,compared with the expected incidence,the incidence decreased by 92.98%,54.21%,42.01%,99.20%,77.26%,62.24%,84.19%,and 25.36%,respectively.Conclusions:1.The average annual incidence of NIDs in Ruili from 2012 to 2021 was higher than the national level,with a high incidence from July to October.The incidence was highest in the 0-9 age group,with males being higher than females.Scattered children,farmers,and commercial service workers were the main population.2.COVID-19 prevention and control measures could reduce the spread of other NIDs,especially NVBD,RD,and GD.Dengue,HIV/AIDS significantly declined.The greater the prevention and control efforts of COVID-19 within a certain range,the more obvious the impact on other NIDs. |
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