Analysis Of The Fairness Of Health Resource Allocation And Prediction Of Health Resources In Anhui Province From The Perspective Of Regional Health Planning

Objective:To analyzes the current situation of health resources from the perspective of regional health planning in 2011-2020 in Anhui Province,grasps the allocation characteristics,analyzes the fairness of health resource allocation in Anhui Province,and explores its influencing factors.Finally,based on the grey prediction model,the development trend and law of health resources in Anhui Province are predicted,so as to make dynamic adjustment of health resources in various regions as soon as possible,increase the balance and fairness of resource allocation layout,and provide feasible reference and suggestions for further optimizing the allocation of health resources in Anhui Province.Methods:Literature search was used to summarize the relevant studies of health resource allocation,and descriptive statistical analysis and literature research method to explore the current situation and regional differences of health resource allocation in Anhui Province.Gini coefficient,Lorenz curve and Theil index were used to evaluate the fairness of health resource allocation in Anhui Province.To evaluate the fairness of health resource allocation in Anhui Province.Gray association model explores the influencing factors and correlation degree ranking of health resources in Anhui Province.The grey prediction model predicts the development trend of health resources in Anhui province in the short term.Results:① From 2011 to 2020,the allocation of health resources in Anhui province is uneven,unreasonable layout,violates the original intention of regional health planning,the largest amount in northern Anhui but the lowest per capita level,the allocation of health human resources is insufficient,especially the allocation of registered nurses is the most lacking,and the proportion of medical care is seriously unbalanced.②In 2020,the Gini coefficient of medical and health institutions,beds,health technicians,practicing(assistant)doctors and registered nurses was 0.11,0.05,0.07,0.06 and 0.09 respectively,all less than 0.2,reaching a fair state.The Theil index of the five health resources is 0.00895,0.00145,0.00338,0.00226 and 0.00577 respectively.The Theil index within the group is greater than that between the groups,and the difference within the group has the greatest impact on the unfair allocation of health resources in Anhui Province.③ The grey correlation analysis results of the five health resources in Anhui Province are all above 0.6.The influencing factor indicators have a strong correlation with health resources.The urbanization rate is the most important influencing factor affecting the allocation of health resources.The per capita GDP ranks second.The per capita fiscal revenue and financial self-sufficiency rate rank third and fourth.The natural population growth rate,education level and aging level are at the bottom of the ranking of the influencing factors of health resources.④ The results of GM(1,1)show that by 2025,the number of medical and health institutions,beds,health technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses per 1,000 population in Anhui Province will reach 0.41,8.32,8.15,3.2 and 4.08,and the proportion of doctors and nurses will also reach 1:1.28,exceeding the expected national health policy objectives,but there are still some areas with insufficient allocation.Conclusion:The allocation of health resources in Anhui Province is unreasonable and unfair.It is necessary to provide suggestions for the optimization of the allocation of health resources in Anhui Province,mainly including adjusting the allocation of health resources structure,improving the level of local economic development,improving regional health talent policies,optimizing future planning directions,and doing a good job in stock adjustment and incremental optimization.