| Objective Through the investigation of the disability status of the elderly in rural areas,this paper analyzes the disability status and influencing factors of the elderly,identifies the high-risk groups of disability and the optimal cut-off values of age for disability,and gives targeted suggestions to prevent and control the disability of the elderly in rural areas according to the research results.Methods A multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling survey was adopted to select one sample county in northern Anhui,central Anhui and southern Anhui,and two towns were randomly selected from each sample county,and three villages were randomly selected from each town,with a total of 18 villages.125 households were randomly selected from each village,and the elderly aged 60 and above in the households were investigated.A total of 3336 elderly people were investigated.The World Health Organization Disability Assessment Scale(WHO DAS 2.0)was used to assess the disability status.Descriptive analysis was used to describe the socio-demographic characteristics,overall disability rate and six dimensions of disability rate of the sample elderly.Combined with binary Logistic regression model and decision tree model,this paper comprehensively analyzes the influencing factors of disability of the elderly in rural areas of Anhui Province,and identifies high-risk groups.ROC curve analysis model and EXCEL software were used,the optimal cut-off values of age for disability were obtained.Binary Logistic regression analysis model was used to validate the utility of the optimal cut-off values of age for disability.Results 1.The comprehensive disability rate of the elderly in rural areas of Anhui Province was 86.8%,of which the cognitive disability rate was 69.3%,the action disability rate was 65.9%,the self-care disability rate was 29.6%,the disability rate of getting along with others was 37.6%,the daily activity disability rate was 65.0%,and the social participation disability rate was 90.3%.2.(1)Logistic regression analysis showed that age,sex,education level,economic status,living status,chronic diseases and hospitalized were the influencing factors of overall disability of the elderly.Decision tree model found that chronic diseases,hospitalized,education level,age,gender and living status were the influencing factors of the overall disability of the elderly in rural areas.ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal cut-off value of age for overall disability was 71.5years old.(2)Logistic regression analysis showed that age,sex,education level,profession,number of chronic diseases and hospitalized were the influencing factors of cognitive disability.Decision tree model found that age,profession,number of chronic diseases and educational level are the influencing factors of cognitive disability.ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal cut-off value of age for cognitive disability was 72.5 years old.(3)Logistic regression analysis showed that age,sex,economic status,profession,number of chronic diseases and hospitalized were the influencing factors of mobility disability.Decision tree model found that age,number of chronic diseases,gender and educational level are the influencing factors of mobility disability of the elderly.ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal cut-off value of age for mobility disability was 71.5 years old.(4)Logistic regression analysis showed that age,sex,economic status,profession,living status,chronic diseases and hospitalized were the influencing factors of self-care disability.Decision tree model found that age,profession,hospitalized,living status and gender were the influencing factors of self-care disability of the elderly.ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal cut-off value of age for self-care disability was 72.5 years old.(5)Logistic regression analysis found that age,sex,education level,economic status,profession,living status,chronic diseases and hospitalized were the influencing factors of the disability of the elderly in getting along with others.Decision tree model found that age,profession,economic status,living status,educational level,gender are the influencing factors of the disability of the elderly to get along with others;ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal cut-off value of age for getting along with people disability was 70.5 years old.(6)Logistic regression analysis showed that age,sex,economic status,living status,chronic diseases and hospitalized were the influencing factors of the disability of daily activities.Decision tree model found that age,chronic diseases and gender are the influencing factors of daily activity disability.ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal cut-off value of age for disability of daily activities was 71.5 years old.(7)Logistic regression analysis showed that age,sex,education level,economic status,chronic diseases and hospitalized were the influencing factors of social participation disability.Decision tree model found that chronic diseases,hospitalized,educational level,gender,age and living status were the influencing factors of the elderly for social participation disability.ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal cut-off value of age for social participation disability was 72.5 years old.Conclusion(1)Cross-sectional investigation shows that the overall disability rate of the elderly in rural areas of Anhui Province is as high as 86.8%,and the disability rate of social participation dimension is the highest,which is 90.3%.(2)Logistic regression model and decision tree model showed that age,sex,education level,economic status,profession,living status,chronic disease and hospitalized had different effects on each dimension of disability.(3)Decision tree model shows that age is the primary influencing factor of disability in five dimensions,such as cognition,mobility,self-care,getting along with people and daily activities.Among these five dimensions,the elderly over 81 years old have the highest disability risk.(4)ROC curve analysis model shows that the dimension of first onset of disability was getting along with others.Within one year,the elderly are not only disabled in one dimension,but may have multiple dimensions of disability symptoms. |
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