Association And Prediction Of Influenza Epidemic Characteristics With Meteorological Factors In Shihezi City

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and pathogenic features of influenza(flu)in Shihezi from 2010-2021,to summarize the epidemiological pattern of influenza in the region,to study the association between the onset of influenza and meteorological factors,to establish a prediction model for influenza,and to provide a basis for scientific prevention and control of influenza.Methods: This study analyzed the influenza data and meteorological data in Shihezi from 2010-2021,and used descriptive epidemiological methods to analyze the epidemiological trend of influenza;correlation analysis between meteorological data and influenza-like case data was performed by Spearman rank correlation analysis,and principal component regression analysis was done;seasonal difference autoregressive sliding average model(SARIMA)was used to The percentage of influenza-like cases(ILI%)in Shihezi region was predicted;this study applied Excel 2019 software,SPSS 26.0 software,and R 4.2.2 software to organize and statistically analyze the data.Results: From 2010-2021,a total of 29,069 influenza-like cases(ILI)were reported in Shihezi city,with an ILI% of 0.81%.except for 2012,2018 and 2021,when the incidence level showed a more pronounced fluctuating rise,the ILI%was generally on a downward trend.The influenza epidemic in Shihezi has obvious seasonality,with a winter-spring epidemic and occasional summer fluctuations,with ILI and ILI% peaks mainly concentrated from October to January of the following year.2010-2013 period,the overall level of influenza incidence was high,ILI% trend dropped significantly over time,and the seasonal characteristics characterized by a winter-spring epidemic were not obvious;2014-2019,Shihezi influenza Resume normal epidemic,ILI% overall decreasing trend,influenza epidemic trend seasonal characteristics are strong;during 2020-2021,influenza is in low level epidemic,seasonal epidemic characteristics are obvious.From 2010 to 2021,a total of 6318 nucleic acid test records were analyzed,and 822 positive specimens were obtained for influenza nucleic acid testing,with a positive detection rate of 13.01% for influenza viruses.The composition of the total number of ILI was highest in the 0-<5 years old group(43.03 %)and lowest in the ≥60 years old group(6.13 %).Influenza virus positive detection rate was highest in the 5 to <15 years age group(16.95%),followed by the ≥60 years group(13.60%).The percentage of influenza-like cases(ILI%)in Shihezi region in 2014-2019 was negatively correlated with the average daily temperature and sunshine hours;positively correlated with the average relative humidity and atmospheric pressure;and not correlated with the difference between the two daily average temperatures and precipitation.The influenza-like cases(Y)and regression equation of meteorological factors is:Y=-95.3998-0.0536*X1+0.0245*X2+0.1016*X3-0.0140*X4(X1 is the average temperature,X2 is the relative humidity,X3 is the atmospheric pressure and X4 is the sunshine hours),which shows that temperature and atmospheric pressure have a greater impact on the onset of influenza.The prediction model ARIMA(1,1,1)(2,0,0)12 was constructed in monthly basis and the monthly ILI% was predicted for 2022.Conclusion:Influenza in Shihezi has seasonal characteristics,with a high prevalence in winter and spring,mainly concentrated in October to January.The main groups of sick people are elderly and children,prompting attention to influenza protection for school-age children.The predominant strains of influenza viruses in Shihezi vary from year to year,mainly influenza A viruses(seasonal H3 and new A H1),suggesting early detection of mutated and new strains,and beware of zoonotic avian influenza viruses.The prediction effect of ARIMA model is different from the real value,and the monitoring and warning of influenza epidemic should be strengthened.In view of the epidemic situation of influenza in Shihezi,preventive and control measures such as influenza early warning and prediction should be done before winter and spring,and preventive and control can be carried out in advance by vaccine,drug and non-drug preventive measures.