Improved SEIR Based Research On Epidemic Transmission And Protective Measures In The Subway System

The well-connected transportation network has brought places closer together,but also accelerated the spread of epidemics.The subway,as an important part of daily travel,is a high-risk site for the spread of urban epidemics and an important pathway for the spread of viruses.In the current situation of normalized epidemic prevention and limited transportation capacity,the subway has to actively take up the new responsibility of epidemic prevention and control,but also to protect people’s rigid travel demand,which requires understanding the transmission mechanism of epidemics in the subway and exploring effective disease protection measures.In this paper,we study the transmission model mechanism of epidemic diseases in subways based on the improved SEIR,take the transmission of COVID-19 in subways as an example,screen the key factors of its transmission,and suggest targeted protective measures.The results of the research are also applicable to the prevention and control of other epidemics,,such as influenza A virus and measles,in order to provide effective and reasonable epidemic prevention and control solutions for subway operations.The details of the study are as follows:(1)Statistical analysis of passenger flow characteristicsThe collected daily passenger flow,hourly passenger flow,peak(flat)period passenger flow and other subway travel data were categorized,and descriptive statistics and trend analysis were conducted on the passenger travel characteristics of line a and line b in city Z according to the changes in passenger flow,based on which a study related to the spread of infectious diseases in the subway was conducted to explore the impact of epidemics on subway operations and passenger travel.(2)Development of an improved SEIR-based epidemic transmission model for metroConsidering the influence of asymptomatic infected patients and changes in the number of passengers on epidemic transmission,a subway epidemic transmission model(SEIA)with improved SEIR was developed based on the SEIR infectious disease model to study the transformation of Susceptible into Probable Infected during subway rides,analyze the key factors associated with Exposed,and quantify the impact caused by Infected and Asymptomatic patients when riding the subway.(3)Simulation analysis of protective measures for subway epidemics-COVID-19 as an exampleThe transmission of epidemic disease in subway is studied by COVID-19,and the transmission process of epidemic disease in subway is simulated based on the improved SEIR model of transmission in subway.Scenarios are set up for simulation analysis to calculate the scale of infection of susceptible people into possible infected people,simulate the effect of implementing different protective measures,and thus judge the effectiveness of relevant protective measures.The research results found that the implementation of interval sitting measures is the best,and vaccination measures are also effective,while station hopping measures can reduce the number of possible infections,but the effect is not significant.(4)Suggestions for protective measures in the subwayBased on the simulation results of the subway epidemic transmission model,we propose targeted epidemic prevention and control recommendations in terms of both subway operation and personal travel.For example,dynamically adjusting the departure plan to avoid crowd aggregation caused by high passenger capacity.Playing the recommendation repeatedly within the subway station,and reminding passengers to sit at intervals.Strengthen epidemic prevention work at key hub stations,and equip public epidemic prevention materials for passengers to use within the station.Accelerate vaccination on an individual level to form basic immunity and so on.