Prediction Of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality And Measurement Of Longevity Risk In Chinese Women

The focus on the mortality of women with cardiovascular disease is the basis to explore the longevity risk of this population.At present,the society pays great attention to women’s health,and cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death for women all over the world.On the one hand,the prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Chinese women remains high,but the mortality of this population is gradually slowing down;On the other hand,the decline of mortality leads to the relative extension of life expectancy,indicating that this specific population is at risk of longevity.As an important part of the family and society,women’s longevity risk will bring challenges to the future family support and pension system.Combined with the realistic background,this paper puts forward that the trend prediction of mortality in this population can strengthen the attention to women with cardiovascular disease,and measure the risk of longevity,in order to provide reference for pension security system and insurance companies.Based on the data of female cardiovascular disease mortality from 2004 to 2019,this paper establishes a random mortality model to predict the change trend of mortality in the future and measure the longevity risk faced by this group.For different data populations,two mortality models,Lee Carter model and Li Lee model,are introduced.The two models are used to model and analyze the overall and sub population data of female cardiovascular disease(divided into East,central and West),including parameter estimation and fitting of the model,and the interpretation rate R and MAPE values are selected to evaluate the model,Then predict and measure the longevity risk.The results show that the historical mortality of cardiovascular disease in women has increased and decreased,which is in a relatively stable but slow decline state;In the historical mortality of subgroups,the mortality in the East and middle showed a downward trend,and the mortality in the West showed an upward trend.Then,the mortality data in the next 11 years were predicted.The results showed that the overall and sub groups showed a downward trend,indicating that women with cardiovascular disease may have a potential risk of longevity.On this basis,calculate the actuarial present value(APV)of continuous lifetime annuity from 2020 to 2030 and the capital requirements(LCR)of two types of longevity risk for different populations,measure their longevity risk and verify the corresponding results.Based on the research results,this paper puts forward some suggestions on the development direction of insurance products from the perspective of market.