Longitudinal Trajectory Of Metabolic Syndrome Indicators And Cardiovascular Disease In Uyghur People Of Xinjiang Corps

Objective:Group-based trajectory model was used to investigate the longitudinal trajectory patterns of metabolic syndrome-related indicators in the Uyghur population of the Corps,to explore the relationship between different indicator trajectory groups and the occurrence of CVD,to predict CVD,and to provide a scientific basis for early prevention and targeted prevention of CVD in this ethnic group.Methods:According to the geographical distribution characteristics of the Uyghur population in Xinjiang Corps,five companies(Company 2,Company 6,Company 8,Company 11 and Company 12)of 51 Corps of the Third Division,which accounted for over 90% of Uyghur residents in Xinjiang Corps,were selected as survey sites using a typical sampling method to conduct a baseline survey in 2016.And four follow-up visits were conducted in 2019,2020,2021 and 2022.The follow-up content was kept consistent with the baseline,and social security,hospitalization information and chronic disease information were collected at each follow-up visit to determine the outcome,and a total of 1922 people were included as study subjects according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria.Stepwise fitting of trajectory curves was performed using Group-based trajectory model to obtain the best trajectory group;differences in baseline characteristics between trajectory groups were compared;and finally,Cox proportional risk regression models were used to explore the risk of developing CVD for each index trajectory group and CVD.Results:1.A total of 1922 study subjects with a mean age of 41.74±13.29 years and mean follow-up time 4.39±0.62 years were included in this study.A total of 163 individuals developed CVD,with a cumulative prevalence of 8.48%,of which 12.66% were higher in women than 3.84% in men(P<0.001).age,BMI,waist circumference,SBP,DBP,TC and LDL-C were all higher in those with CVD than in those without CVD(all P<0.05).the proportion of women with CVD,the prevalence of overweight and obesity,the high SBP and DBP were all higher than those without CVD(P<0.05).2.The waist circumference trajectory was divided into low level rise group,medium level stable group and high level stable group,and the prevalence of CVD was 3.30%,9.65% and 16.06% respectively(all P<0.001).the results of the Cox regression model showed that in the adjusted model the risk of CVD was higher in the high level stable group and medium level stable group than in the low level rise group(P<0.05).3.The blood pressure trajectory included SBP and DBP trajectories.The SBP trajectory could be divided into low level stable group,medium level stable group,high level rising group,high level falling group and very high level stable group,whose CVD incidence rates were 3.33%,9.19%,25.00%,20.57% and 25.37%respectively;the DBP trajectory group could be divided into low level stable group,medium level stable group and high level stable group,whose CVD incidence rates were 3.33%,9.19%,25.00%,20.57% and25.37% respectively.The Cox regression model showed that the risk of CVD was increased in the medium stable group and the high stable group in the SBP trajectory,and in the medium stable group and the high stable group in the DBP trajectory(P<0.05).4.The lipid trajectory included TC,TG,HDL-C and LDL-C trajectories,of which the TG trajectory included the low level increase group,the medium level stable group and the high level increase group,with the incidence of CVD distributed as 3.83%,9.63% and 8.42%;the TC trajectory included the medium level decrease group and the high level stable group,with the incidence of CVD distributed as 7.49% and11.56% respectively.The LDL-C trajectory included the low level rising group,the medium level stable group and the high level declining group,whose CVD incidence rates were 2.94%,8.17% and 13.48%respectively(P<0.001).Cox regression models showed no statistically significant association between the trajectory groups of lipid-related indicators and the risk of CVD.The Cox regression model showed that the risk of CVD was increased in the FPG trajectory group(P<0.05).Conclusion:1.High levels of trajectory in the waist circumference group were all independent risk factors for the development of CVD,and the risk of CVD increased with increasing trajectory levels.2.The trajectory groups with normal high blood pressure and those with persistently increasing blood pressure were independent risk factors for the development of CVD.3.There was no independent correlation between the trajectory of each lipid index and the risk of developing CVD,but the trajectory group with higher lipid levels still had a higher incidence.4.The rapid rise in blood glucose trajectory group was an independent risk factor for the development of CVD.5.Group-based trajectory model can more accurately identify trajectory groups with high risk of CVD,and has some advantages in early identification of trajectory groups with adverse trends in certain indicators.