Analysis Of HIV/AIDS Epidemic Characteristics And Estimation Of Epidemic Trend Among Young People In Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Objective To understand the current situation and characteristics of HIV/AIDS epidemic among young people in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,to estimate the HIV/AIDS epidemic,and to provide scientific basis for adjusting the existing AIDS prevention and control strategies and formulating more targeted prevention and control strategies in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Methods The new AIDS case report data of young people in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2013 to 2022 were downloaded through the infectious disease monitoring module of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System,and the general demographic and epidemiological characteristics of the population and the annual change trend of the above characteristics were described and analyzed;Download the AIDS sentinel surveillance data of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2013 to 2022 through the AIDS Work Information System of the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention,and sort out and analyze the AIDS related"knowledge and behavior"of young students by using the AIDS related knowledge and sexual behavior characteristics of young people involved in the AIDS sentinel questionnaire;Using AIDS sentinel surveillance data,EPP/Spectrum model was established to estimate the AIDS epidemic in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,analyze the possible development trend of AIDS epidemic in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,and further infer the possible development trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic among young people.The case report data,sentinel surveillance data and epidemic situation estimation results were comprehensively analyzed to obtain the epidemic characteristics and possible development trend of AIDS among young people in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Result From 2013 to 2022,there were 1,676 new HIV/AIDS cases among young people aged15 to 24 in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,accounting for 20.5 percent of all new HIV/AIDS cases.The proportion of cases in young people decreased year by year,from 28.5%in 2014 to 15.6%in 2022.The number of cases in young people showed an increasing trend year by year from 2013 to 2016,and showed a decreasing trend from 2017,and the decrease was most obvious in 2022,with a decrease of 30.1%year-on-year.The age of cases mainly concentrated in 20-24 years old accounted for 75.2%;Young males accounted for 94.3%;Young students accounted for 27.2%;Han ethnic group and Mongolian ethnic group accounted for 76.8%and 18.0%,respectively;College degree or above accounted for 53.2%.Among the cases aged15 to 19 than rising trend year by year(χ² _trend=6.58,P=0.01).People classified as cases of students accounted for rising to 31.4%from 25.4%in 2013(χ² _trend=25.36,P<0.01),the proportion of young women is linear growth trend(χ² _trend=7.15,P<0.01).HIV and AIDS accounted for 89.4%and 10.6%of cases among young people.The cases of infection through homosexual contact accounted for 69.0%of the total youth cases.The main sample source of cases was testing consultation,accounting for 31.0%.In the report stage of youth has developed into AIDS cases showed a trend of increased year by year(χ² _trend=5.80,P=0.02).Cases of STD prevalence downward trend year by year(χ² _trend=13.38,P<0.01).The current address of the newly reported cases mainly concentrated in Hohhot,Baotou,Tongliao and Chifeng,and the difference was statistically significant（χ²=139.47,P<0.01）,and there was no significant linear trend(χ² _trend=0.18,P=0.67).The proportion of students in 2018-2022 increased to 30.5%compared with 2013-2017,and the difference was statistically significant（χ²=26.9,P<0.01）.The proportion of heterosexual transmission increased by 4.0%,the proportion of testing from other patients increased by 6.8%,and the difference was statistically significant（χ²=13.3,P<0.01）.The proportion of cases in 15-19 years old group increased by 6.1%,and the difference was statistically significant（χ²=8.4,P<0.01）.Through multivariate analysis,it was found that the current address was Hohhot,Chifeng and Xing’an,the sample source was preoperative detection,and the cases aged 20-24 years old were more likely to have developed AIDS at the time of reporting,which was"late detection"（P<0.05）.A total of 14578 young students aged15-24 years were under the HIV sentinel surveillance from 2013 to 2022,of which 48.2%were from universities.Students of grade 1 and grade 2 accounted for 90.6%,and 56.0%of young male students,with a male to female ratio of 1.27:1.The awareness rate of HIV/AIDS prevention knowledge was 93.8%among young students under sentinel surveillance from 2013to 2022.The question with the lowest awareness rate from 2013 to 2016 was:"Can mosquito bites spread HIV?",was 72.4%;The question with the lowest average awareness rate in 2017-2022 was:"At present,the prevalence of HIV among Chinese young students is growing rapidly,and the main mode of transmission is male homosexual sex,followed by heterosexual sex,right?",was 80.7%.The awareness rate of university students was higher than that of college students before and after changing the question.The awareness rate of 15-19 years old group was lower than that of 20-24 years old group（χ²=6.5,P=0.01）.465 young students had had sex,accounting for 3.2%.The proportion of condom use at the first sexual intercourse was51.4%.78.7%of the students had received information services on AIDS prevention in the last year.In the last year,52.9%of the students had participated in information services on HIV/AIDS prevention.College students are 1.7 times more likely to have had sex than university students,and 20-to 24-year-olds are 1.6 times more likely to have had sex than 15-to 19-year-olds.Inner Mongolia’s 2022 HIV prevalence estimate calculated a detection rate of80.3%,with an estimated 30 living young adults remaining undetected.There is an upward trend in Inner Mongolia AIDS case detection rate(χ² _trend=14.3,P<0.01).Conclusion At present,HIV infection among young people in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is in a low epidemic situation,and may remain in a low epidemic situation.At present,AIDS cases of young people in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region have shown a trend of younger age and campus.The phenomenon of"separation of knowledge and practice"has appeared among young people.The AIDS detection rate in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has been increasing year by year,but it has not yet reached the target of blocking the AIDS epidemic to reach 90%.It is still necessary to continue to expand the detection of young people,establish the awareness of active detection of young people,and promote the early detection of their own infection status.