Spatial Heterogeneity Of Influencing Factors Of Under-Five Mortality In China

Children are the future of the country,and whether they can grow up healthily is related to the future fate of the country.In recent years,the overall under-five mortality rate in China has been reduced,but there are significant differences among regions.In response to the current studies on under-five mortality in China,which ignore the spatial variation characteristics of child mortality and its influencing factors,this thesis explored the temporal and spatial variation patterns of under-five mortality and its influencing factors in China from a spatial and temporal perspective,which could reveal the distribution characteristics of child mortality and the formation mechanism,and also contributed to the differentiated reduction of child mortality and a sound child health care system.The main research contents were as follows.(1)The spatial characteristics of under-five mortality in China were characterized at the national county scale,and the spatial autocorrelation and descriptive statistical analysis were used to study the spatial distribution patterns and dynamic evolution of under-five mortality from multiple perspectives.The results showed that the under-five mortality rate had obvious regional distribution and spatial clustering characteristics,with the "Hu Huanyong line" as the boundary,and decreasing along the terrain step from west to east.From 2000 to 2010,the number of counties with high-value clustering of under-five mortality rate decreased,and more counties showed low-value clustering characteristics.(2)Structural equation models were constructed to study the influencing mechanisms of under-five mortality in China.The direction and degree of influence on under-five mortality were analyzed from three major aspects:demographic factors,socio-economic factors and environmental factors.The results showed that the under-five mortality rate was positively influenced by demographic factors and inversely influenced by socio-economic and environmental factors;environmental factors had the greatest influence on child mortality,followed by socio-economic factors,and demographic factors had the least influence.(3)Considering the uneven distribution of under-five mortality,a spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model of factors influencing under-five mortality was constructed based on multiple covariance test and ridge regression analysis to study the heterogeneity of the influence of each factor on under-five mortality.The results showed that:globally,only the improvement of vegetation index could not effectively promote the reduction of under-five mortality;locally,the influence of each factor on different regions showed heterogeneity,for example,the effect of basically all influencing factors on child mortality in Chongqing city was weakened.