A Study On Collaborative Supply Of Emergency Medical Supplies Based On SEIR And System Dynamics

After a major public health emergency,the demand gap makes the problem of securing medical supplies prominent.To meet the needs of patients and medical personnel,a large amount of protective clothing,masks,respirators and other medical supplies are urgently needed,making the supply of emergency medical supplies particularly important in the epidemic environment.The purpose of this thesis is to predict the development of the epidemic,distinguish the risk level of the epidemic in each region,and establish an emergency medical supplies demand prediction model and a collaborative emergency medical supplies supply system dynamics model to ensure the efficiency of emergency medical supplies distribution between regions.This thesis establishes a SEIR-LSTM-based emergency medical supplies demand prediction model to predict and fit the number of infections in Hubei Province,and the results show that the model is more accurate in predicting the number of infections.And the risk level of the epidemic and the demand for emergency medical supplies in six cities of Hubei Province are classified,and the dynamics model of the emergency medical supplies coordinated supply system to meet the demand gap is established to simulate the emergency medical supplies coordinated supply situation under the public health emergencies,and the research results show that: different control measures will have certain influence on the supply of medical supplies for the epidemic,and the choice of The supply of flexible medical supplies is easier to meet the demand gap brought by the epidemic,and the rear medical supplies need to minimize the shipment delay to provide stable supplies for epidemic prevention and control.However,this study also has certain limitations.This thesis conducts research on the epidemic situation and propagation characteristics,and the emergency medical supplies demand prediction through the epidemic development data thus establishing a collaborative medical supplies supply system dynamics model,which is difficult to cope with the complex problems arising from public health emergencies in reality.