Spatial And Temporal Evolution And Mechanism Analysis Of Agricultural Modernization In The Middle And Lower Reaches Of The Yellow River

Agriculture is the foundation of the world,agriculture is prosperous.Agriculture is the basic condition of a country’s prosperity and people’s rich life,and also the fundamental guarantee of a country’s long-term stability.In 2004-2022,the central ’No.1 document’ has focused on ’three rural’ issues for 19 consecutive years,highlighting the importance of agricultural development to China.Agricultural modernization is an important foundation for rural revitalization,and promoting agricultural and rural modernization is a major task of building a socialist modernization country in an all-round way.The middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River is an important industrial and agricultural economic zone in China and an important barrier to ecological security.Its agricultural modernization level is an important guarantee for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Based on the spatio-temporal panel data of 56 prefecture-level cities in four provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2019,this paper constructs the evaluation index system of agricultural modernization level from four dimensions,namely,the level of agricultural input,the level of agricultural output,the level of rural social and economic development,and the level of agricultural sustainable development.The entropy comprehensive evaluation method is used to analyze and study the level of agricultural modernization in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River from two aspects of time series and space series.The Moran’s I index is used to measure the global and local autocorrelations,and the grey correlation model is used to analyze the mechanism of influencing the level of agricultural modernization in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.The results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2019,the level of agricultural modernization in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River showed an upward trend,which was not only due to its unique natural and geographical conditions,but also inseparable from a series of agricultural policies issued by the Chinese government,but there were obvious regional differences in the development speed and level.(2)From the perspective of time series,the agricultural modernization level of the four provinces and prefecture-level cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River is consistent with the development trend of the agricultural modernization level in the whole middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River,showing a rising trend with time evolution,but there are certain differences in the development speed and development level between regions.The measurement value of agricultural modernization level in Weihai is the highest,and that in Xinzhou is the lowest.(3)In terms of spatial evolution,the agricultural modernization development levels of prefecture-level cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River in 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2019 are selected.Through spatial visualization,it is concluded that the spatial distribution of agricultural modernization levels of prefecture-level cities is uneven.Overall,the range of low-level regions is greatly reduced,and the high-level regions are greatly increased: Shandong-Henan section of the lower reaches of the Yellow River represented by Shandong hills and the Huanghuaihai Plain is the high-value core area of the development level of agricultural modernization in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River;the agricultural modernization level in Shanxi-Shaanxi section of the middle Yellow River represented by the Loess Plateau is low.(4)The spatial agglomeration characteristics of agricultural modernization level: During the study period,the level of agricultural modernization in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has a positive correlation in space,and has always been in a strong spatial agglomeration distribution mode.There is an adjacent trend in space in the same level of agricultural modernization.The characteristics of local spatial agglomeration are mainly H-H type agglomeration,L-L type agglomeration,H-L type agglomeration and L-H type agglomeration.The spatial variation trend is increasing and shows obvious east-west differentiation.(5)Through the establishment of grey correlation model,it is calculated from four dimensions that the electricity consumption per unit cultivated land area,the grain production per unit cultivated land area,the total output value of per capita agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,and the pesticide use per unit cultivated land area are the mechanisms affecting the overall agricultural modernization level in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.From the local scale,the mechanism affecting the level of agricultural modernization in the middle reaches of the Yellow River is the multiple cropping rate of cultivated land,grain yield per unit area of cultivated land and disposable income of rural residents;the mechanism affecting the level of agricultural modernization in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is the level of agricultural mechanization,land productivity and per capita gross output of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery;pesticide use per unit arable land is a common impact mechanism.