Study On The Spatiotemporal Evolution And Driving Mechanism Of Urban Shrinkage In Shandong Provinc

With the introduction of the concept of high-quality development of urbanization,the past high-speed and extensive economic growth model gradually cannot be sustained under the constraints of resources,environment and ecology.Expansion is no longer the only state of urban development,and some cities and regions begin to shrink successively,which means that China’s urban development has entered a new stage.With the transformation of urban development mode,urban development has begun to transform from one-way advance to interactive evolution.As an emerging topic in current urban development,urban shrinkage has attracted much attention.Therefore,identifying the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of urban shrinkage within the region is of great significance for the realization of high-quality development of new urbanization..Based on the discipline basis of urban geography,this paper first uses the population census data of prefecture-level cities,counties(cities,districts)and towns in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020 to measure the shrinking cities in Shandong Province.Secondly,with the help of standard deviation ellipse,Moran index and other spatial analysis tools,137 counties(cities and districts)were taken as the research objects to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of county-scale urban shrinkage in Shandong Province,and the types of urban shrinkage were divided based on the relative changes in time.Finally,the panel data regression model is established to identify the main influencing factors of urban shrinkage,based on which specific measures and suggestions are proposed,and to provide reference for the high-quality urban development of Shandong Province.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows.(1)The shrinkage index was constructed by combining the indicators of permanent resident population,household registration population,urban population and so on,and the shrinkage degree of 16 prefecture-level cities,137 counties(cities,districts),and 1820 township streets in Shandong Province was estimated.It was found that during 2000-2020,urban growth and shrinkage in Shandong Province coexisted,while the shrinkage of prefecture-level cities was not obvious.The shrinkage occurred mainly in counties(cities and districts),and the shrinkage at the scale of rural and township streets mainly occurred in Yantai and Weihai.During the study period,the proportion and scale of urban shrinkage increased gradually in Shandong Province,and there were differences in the shrinkage conditions among different cities.he shrinkage degree index was constructed to measure the shrinkage degree of 16 prefecture-level cities,137 counties(cities,districts)and 1820 township streets in Shandong Province.It was found that from 2000 to 2020,urban growth and shrinkage in Shandong Province coexisted,and the shrinkage areas were mainly counties.During the study period,the shrinkage intensity increased and the shrinkage scale gradually increased.There are differences between different cities and cities.(2)The agglomeration characteristics of shrinkage areas in Shandong Provincewere significant,but the global dependence was gradually weakened,and the urban shrinkage areas showed a trend of increasing generalization;The local dependence has certain fluctuation,and H-H and L-L agglomeration is dominant,with strong aggregation.The H-L and L-H clusters were small and mostly dotted.There are obvious differences in the distribution of phase shrinking cities and sustained shrinking cities,and both show certain agglomeration characteristics.(3)The influencing factors and driving mechanism of urban shrinkage in Shandong Province have their own characteristics.There are obvious differences between shrinking cities and expanding cities with high population aging,low level of regional economic development,slow adjustment of industrial structure and other social and economic characteristics.The empirical results show that the change of population structure,the rapid urbanization process,the unbalanced allocation of educational resources,and the expansion of urban construction land are the main causes of urban shrinkage in Shandong Province,and the intensity and direction of the effects of factors such as industrial structure level and social security level on urban shrinkage are different.(4)Based on the response principles of serving the people,serving the region,cultivating regional growth poles and promoting new urbanization,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions such as changing the concept of urban shrinkage governance,attaching importance to policy guidance,accelerating industrial structure and transformation,effectively adjusting spatial layout,increasing investment in infrastructure construction and strengthening regional cooperation.