Unified Solution Of Lottery Paradox And Preamble Paradox Based On Plausibilit

The premise of inductive reasoning does not necessarily implies conclusions.It is a kind of uncertainty reasoning,so its rationality has been widely questioned.The continuous reflection on the rationality of inductive reasoning promotes the development of inductive reasoning.Through the bring-in of probability,the traditional inductive logic evolves to its modern form.In this process,lottery paradox and preface paradox have been raised one after,which reflect people’s thinking about the process of inductive acceptance.By taking the cognitive predicament reflected by the lottery paradox and the preface paradox as the goal of solving the paradox,this paper reexamines the two paradoxes.The traditional solutions of paradoxes set out from the logical dimension and put forward the regulation for the subject’s cognition,so they require a high high-level cognition of the subjects,which cannot truly reflect the subject’s cognitive ability and cognitive needs.In order to avoid three defects of solving paradoxes from the logical dimension,this paper proposes to solve paradox from the practical dimension,that is,from the actual cognitive ability of the subject.Based on the practical dimension,the purpose of subject using induction is closely related to the subject’s pursuit of truth,so we need a way to quantify the degree of proposition approaching truth."Truthlikeness" can not only reflect the degree of conformity between the theory and the truth,but also compare which theories are closer to the truth.It is more suitable than probability to judge whether the inductive conclusion is accepted or not.However,the three traditional definitions of truthlikeness have their own defects and scope of application,which can not meet the needs of solving the inductive paradox.Therefore,starting from the actual cognitive needs of the subject,this paper gives the definition of truthlikeness based on the subject’s specific question,and applies it to the solution of lottery paradox and preface paradox.Under the premise of clarifying the subject’s question,the subject accepts the proposition with the highest expected truthlikeness in the context of lottery paradox and preface paradox.Therefore,from the perspective of "maximizing true belief’ and"minimizing wrong belief",the subject’s belief is reasonable and the paradox is eliminated.Furthermore,by replacing "probability acceptance rule" with "expected truthlikeness acceptance rule";"deductive closure rule" with "question based deductive closure rule";"consistency rule" with "question based consistency rule",and adding"belief updating rule",we get the new inductive acceptance rules.These rules reflect the actual cognitive ability of the subject and meet the actual cognitive needs of the subject.Therefore,we can partially defend the rationality of inductive acceptance from the practical dimension,and make a unified solution to the lottery paradox and preamble paradox.