Research On The Interpolation And Prediction Of Runoff And The Impact Analysis On Runoff Changes In The Luanhe Basin In Inner Mongolia

Runoff is not only the basic link of water cycle but also the basic factors of water balance, runoff is the water resources that can be chronically utilized by human, its changes directly impact the human existence and the social economy development. This paper consider the utilization and the open question of water resources in the Luanhe Basin in Inner Mongolia, using the geostatistics,hydro-meterological statistical analysis method and SWAT model to respectively study the interpolation of missed hydraulic variable and time-space variance analysis,the time character analysis of hydro-meterological variable and the impact analysis on runoff changes. It's significant to study these questions which could provide scientific support for sustainable utilization of water resources in the basin.Main achievements of this study are:(1) Firstly applying the monthly scale Cokriging method and annual scale hole-effectiveness time-space Cokriging method to respectively interpolate the missed monthly runoff and annual runoff data during 2001-2009 for Waigoumen station, and the interpolation results are reasonable by identification, this two method provide a better research technique for interpolating hydraulic data applying the geostatistics. Then analyze the annual changes,seasonal changes and month distribution changes of runoff applying the hydro-meterological statistical analysis method.(2) Applying the universal kriging method with multiple time period to study the spatial variability and the spatial interpolation of precipitation. And the result shows that compared with other common kriging methods, the merits of the universal kriging method with multiple time period is that this method consider the time-space stochastic characteristic of hydro-meterological variable, can well used the long-term observation data, and provide a better research technique for spatial variability and spatial interpolation for hydro-meterological variable in the region with sparse stations. Then analyze the annual changes,seasonal changes and month distribution changes of precipitation,air temperature and evaporation applying the hydro-meterological statistical analysis method. Finally analyze the relationship between the runoff and the air temperature and evaporation with multiple regression method, and conclude that the correlation between runoff and precipitation is better than the correlation between runoff and evaporation.(3) The SWAT hydrological model was employed to analyze the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff. The result shows that the impact of human activities is larger than climate change, and the indirect human activities are the main reasons for runoff reduction.(4) The SWAT model was employed to analyze the potential change of runoff on the future climate change and different land use scene. The result shows that the sensitivity of runoff on precipitation is larger than on air temperature, the runoff will increase in the future 90 years under the presumable climate scene. And the sequence of runoff yield in the region for different land use type is: sand or nudation>cultivated land>forest land>grassland.