The Study Of The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On Manufacturing

With intensified global climate change, economic impact study of climate change had become the academic focus. This paper focused on the economic impact of the manufacturing sector due to climate change, and try to put the relevant research about economic impact of climate change into industry field while promoting the manufacturing study into climate change field. Considering the influence of cimate change is regional, so Nanjing manufacturing was taken to be the main study object. Econometrical and mathematical economic theory and methods were used to discuss the direct and indirect economic impact of climate change on manufacturing.The direct economic impact of climate change on the manufacturing sector was to assess the influence of typical climatic factors (temperature and precipitation). In this paper, cointegration theory and C-D production function model were used to evaluate the static economic impact of climate change on manufacturing which showed the total average affect of climatic factors. And the mutual promotion relationship between global warming and manufacturing development were given out; Then, the impulse response function and variable parameter model were adopted to evaluate the dynamic economic impact of climate change on manufacturing. The changing trend of influences of climate change on manufacturing economy was discussed; Finally, on the basic of Trans-Log Production Function, the integrative influence of climatic factors on manufacturing economy was studied. The boundary productivity of climatic factors, the static and dynamic impacts can be got at the same time. This study not only revealed the basic rules of these climatic factors affecting manufacturing economy, but also enriching and expanding the study methods in this research area.Carbon reduction is the main indirect political impact of climate change on manufacturing. And the key issue was how to keep manufacturing developing under the restriction of carbon reduction; So, to take the restrition of total carbon emission as a precondition, the restrictive effect of carbon reduction to economic progress was analysed through neoclassical growth theory. And the fundamental approach was technique progress which had been proved by theory and demonstration in this paper. Further, we also adoptted optimization theary to study the restrictive effect of carbon reduction to economic progress taking the the restrition of accumulated carbon emission as a precondition. For solving the problem, human capital was introduced as an important immateriality productional factor. Then, the theoretically and empirical research were taken by Lucas endogenous growth theory and STIRPAT model. The outcome showed that building human capital was an effective way to solve the problem of carbon reduction of manufacturing caused by climate change.Finally, according to the research conclusions, some adapting and mitigation propsals of climate change were been discussed. Focus on adapting propsals, we can "enhancing keeping away the influence of non average state of climate change", "taking care of the negative impact of precipitation on manufacturing" and "taking measures to reduce the tendency of local climate warming"; Arround the mitigation propsals, we can "depending technic progress to carry out no regrets carbon reduction", "promoting manufacturing carbon reduction through human capital accumulating" and "implementing the cooperating mode of carbon reduction on basic of carbon trading mechanism".