A Study On The Forecast Of Landslide's Evolvement Based On CA And Its Application

Traditional methods,such as numerical analysis method, limit equilibrium method, engineering analogy method and forecast of computation intelligence make great progresses in landslide predict and alleviate the disaster. landslide is too complex to be forecasted well and truly because of its stochastic, uncertainty and the nonlinearlity of the process, and it is well known to be one of the most difficult problem.The thesis is a successor of fifteenth project—research and demonstration on the key problem of supervision, pre-warning and decision-making assistance supported system of geology disaster in the Three Gorges of Yangtse Rive (2001BA604A02), which aims at the landslide-forecast, and introduce cellular automata(CA) into the study of landslide firstly.The thesis studies the theory appling CA to simulate landslide and establishes CA-Landslide model. On the basis of GIS, the new intelligent compositive-system on the disaster-changing forecast of landslide is set up. At last, Tiefeng landslide is illustrated to prove the model. The main conclusions are summarized as follows:①The basic principle, constitutes and general characteristics are described. Especially the ways and means to simulate landslide and the behaviors of rock are deeply studied, and CA-Landslide is established finally.②The nonlinear law during the process of landslide including fractal and self-organized critical charaters is particularly studied, and the relationship between the nonlinear law and the landslide is researched.③Based on the thought of safty fator,damage variable is introuduced into landslide study,and the relationship between the damage variable and fractal is analysed.then,the judgement of the CA-Landslide is determind.④The basic method and principle of the geography information system(GIS) is analyzed. The relative key technique and programme, which is used to found the GIS model of the comprehensive information of landslide forecast, are researched on the basisof ArcView GIS 3.2. The spatio-temporal data model is also discussed.⑤The necessarity and possibility of integration of CA and GIS is analysed indetail.In terms of the properties of the CA-Landslide,Avenue combined with Visual are adopted in programme, CA-Landslide is introduced into intelligent compositive-system on the disaster-changing forecast of landslide...