Theoretical Research On Response Reliability Of Emergency System And Its Application In Fire Emergency

China is one of the countries badly affected by natural calamities and is now undergoing a transition period of social development. Miscellaneous and complicated contradictions are numerous. Consequently, public emergency takes place frequently. China will face severe trial brought by public emergency in long period of time. Public emergency possesses characteristics of harmfulness, uncertainty, limited information and limited time. It may not only cause a great loss to life and property, but also may affect social stability and even may be a threat to national security. Therefore in order to prevent effectively the occurrence of public emergency and to control the loss and influence of public emergency, it is very necessary to research on emergency management and to establish a reliable emergency system.Public emergency system is a complex system. It includes hardware subsystem composed by emergency equipment and facilities, software subsystem composed by the policies and regulations and operating system mechanism, and subsystem of emergency response workers who use hardware and software subsystems. It concerns many departments of government and several levels of community. The functions of public emergency system are to prevent incident. And when incident happens, it launch quickly and operate effectively to control losses and impact brought by incident. This dissertation takes the response reliability of public emergency system as object of research, with the system reliability theory as its basis.The main content of the dissertation are as follows:(1)General idea of the dissertationBy applying the statistical simulation theory, system engineering principle and method, computer art etc. synthetically, it is started with the common characteristic property of the public emergency system. First, it is studied qualitatively that the structure and funcitons of public emergency and its interrelation. On this basis the definition of system response reliability is given. Furthermore, all kinds of factors that affect system response reliability are analyzed. By applying the theory of system reliability, response reliability analysis forecast model of the emergency system is built, and the method of finding the solution and verifying system response reliability is studied. And a fire emergency response system for enterprises is applied researched. Through the above research, emergency system and emergency response process are optimized.(2)The dissertation proposes structural principles of establishing systemEmergency system has latent state and the actual state. Usually it is in a latent state. When the incident happens, it changes rapidly into actual state. After the incident subsided, it changes into latent state. The operation of the public emergency system has its own particularity. As a result, the characteristic is different from general system on structure and function. First of all, run time of the emergency system and reply time section is uncertain, which differs from other system that has a certain operation period. Secondly, the clime, type and endangering degree of public emergency are different. As a result, adopted measure, mobilizing resource and answering mode are different too. This particularity indicates that an omnipotent emergency system can't be founded and no permanent type of emergency system can be founded. Therefore, system function and structure must have sufficient flexibility.(3)The dissertation expatiate the structure and functions of emergency systemEmergency system comprises hardware, software and human subsystems. Hardware subsystem includes emergency equipment and facilities, and other material resources. Software system includes policies and laws, organization structure and rules and regulations. Human subsystem includes decision-making, implementation, operation, information and supervisory staff. The three form the organic link overall. Hardware subsystem constitutes the material basis for the emergency system. It is the premise for emergency system to achieve its emergency response functions. Software subsystem provides organizational guarantee for the emergency system. It provides support of policy, methods and technology. Human subsystem are operators or users for hardware subsystem and software subsystem. It is the most critical and the most active factor. Emergency system has prevention and response two important features. They correspond to the latent state and the actual. The system structure decides the system functions. The system functions counteract the system structure. The specific structure of system must be designed based on the system functions.(4)Theory research on emergency system response reliabilityFor emergency system, start-up of response function means that the system enters into actual operation. It is the last barrier to ease and control events. The reliable play of function is critical. Rapid, accurate, effective emergency response will increase the level of coordination and reaction speed. The response reliability is the basis of success emergency.The dissertation analyzes the response process of emergency system. According to the repeatability or consistency of process output, the definition of emergency system response reliability is given. From the perspective of structure and process, the impact factors of emergency system response reliability are analyzed. And From viewpoint of the function structure and the process the emergency response system reliability is analyzed. From the perspective of the function structure, the response function of emergency system is decomposed. According to the reliability forecasting methods of hardware, software and human the reliabilities of basic incident are obtained. Based on the composition of emergency response functions and application of fault tree analysis, the emergency system response reliability is solved. From the perspective of the process, the active network model of emergency response process is established and changed into Petri net model. Applications of ExSpect software, the emergency response process model is established and simulated.(5)Applied research on fire emergency system response reliabilityThe integrated using of theory research on the response reliability of public emergency system, taking an enterprise fire emergency system as a case, the response reliability of fire emergency system is applied researched.The internal and external fire brigade's structure of fire emergency systems are analyzed. The impact factors of fire emergency system are analyzed and the response reliability features diagram model of fire emergency system is established. The failing response fault tree analysis model of fire emergency system is established and analyzed. From the three aspects of reasonable allocation from the fire equipment and facilities, the establishment of fire management system and raise staff awareness of fire safety, fire safety measures are proposed. The emergency dispatch process reliability of external fire brigade is simulated. And the improvement order and measures of emergency process are proposed.