Study On Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Model Of Flood Caused By Torrential Rain In Plain River Network Region

This paper establishes the hydro-meteorological forecasting model of flood caused by torrential rain in the plain river network region,and simulation verification is done on it with hydro-meteorological data of Lixiahe region in Northern Jiangsu; Combined with meteorological models,it is realized that the hydro-meteorological forecasting model is coupled;Based on this,this paper develops operational platform. This paper draws the following conclusions:1) Through the comprehensive and systematic consideration from the unit,the simulated runoff,borders,watercourse,weir gates,and the relationship between the water quantity and water level changes,this paper establishes the hydro-meteorological forecasting model of flood caused by torrential rain in the plain river network region.2) According to regional characteristics of Lixiahe region in Northern Jiangsu, this paper sets up various parameters of hydrological forecasting model.By using 8 torrential rains of Lixiahe region for 1980-88,hydrological forecasting model is calibrated.Then,this paper selects 4 flood-causing torrential rains(overall rain,local rain,continuous rain and heavy rain) to verify hydrological forecasting model.The results show that:the model calibration is an indispensable part.Model for simulating the practical flood has high precision and strong practicability.3) Based on the new generation mesoscale weather prediction model(WRF) and hydrological forecasting model,and using Penman equation for the calculation of water surface evaporation,this paper realizes the coupling between WRF and the-hydrological forecasting model.The hydro-meteorological forecasting model of flood caused by torrential rain in the plain river network region is established.Then,it is verified in Lixiahe region.The results show that:forecast value and measured value of water level is consistent.The model has high precision and strong practicability, which shows the ultimate achievement of the hydro-meteorological forecasting model.4) This paper develops operational platform of the hydro-meteorological forecasting model of flood caused by torrential rain in the plain river network region. In the development process,hybrid programming gives fully the advantages of Fortran in the calculation of math and engineering and the characteristics of VB in graphics processing capability and human-computer interaction.According to the advantages of VB interface,operational platform integrates GIS component (MapObjects) and VB own ActiveX control to develop the intuitive and concrete visual graph.The platform development greatly enhances the practicality of the hydro-meteorological forecasting model,to reduce the work intensity of forecasters, and to improve labor efficiency.