Study On Aggregation Amelioration And Application In Urban Atmospheric Environmental Simulation And Forecasting

Based on the third generation air quality model CMAQ, this article puts forward CMAQ-MOS technique which integrates dynamical and statistical method to correct numerical model output error produced by non-objectivity of emission inventory. Pollution emission nudging technique is also introduced to improve forecast precision of air quality model. The article also studies the dynamical and thermal effects on PBL atmosphere produced by urban land surface and building cluster, and urban air pollution distribution and its physical and chemical progress. Based on above technique and product, Chinese urban air quality forecasting operational system is established on IBM super computer of national meteorological center. The major contents and conclusions are presented as follows:Firstly, we study the special and temporal characteristics of atmosphere pollution by urban and regional scale. CMAQ-MOS and point-area combination technique is introduced and used to experiment on air quality forecast. Results show that CMAQ-MOS technique has high effect on correcting model error produced by non-objectivity of emission inventory and improve air quality forecasting precision.Secondly, pollution emission nudging technique is introduced and used to correct urban average SO₂ and NO_X emission, error factor and convergence condition of emission nudging technique is studied and hourly SO₂ and CO emission of Peking is also experimented. Results show that nudging emission evidently improves the concentration and trend forecasting effects and has high reliability and practice.Thirdly, regional air pollution characteristics of Chinese three economy circles are analyzed and compared. Nudging emission are used to simulate daily SO₂, NO_X and PM10 concentration of Peking and Shanghai in September and December, contributions of local and peripheral pollution source on urban air pollution are studied by above results.Fourthly, urban canopy parameterization is used to study dynamical and thermal characteristics of Peking urban PBL atmosphere in winter and summer. Effects of urban landsurface and building cluster on air pollution distribution in city ozone and its physical and chemical progress are also researched. Results show that there are evident wind-obstruct, temperature-increase and turbulence-strengthen area in city ozone. Urban air pollution is accumulated and its distribution is closely related by building layout.Fifthly, CMAQ model is build on IBM super computer of china Meteorology Administration. Based on CMAQ-MOS technique and emission nudging products, Chinese urban air quality forecasting system is established and linked to operational numerical forecasting system of national meteorological center.