| The core area of Jiuzhaigou is located in the south of the Ming Range and east marginof Qinghai-Tibet plateau, Its area is 720km~2. Its special geography location and evolutivehistory of eco-geo-environment physiographic have created a grand and unique frigid-alpinekarst landform and lake-gorge scene. It is famous on the world in possession of manyhonors, such as "Natural Heritage on the World", "Protected Region of InternationalBiosphere" and "Environmental Area on 21 Century". Jiuzhaigou takes momentous actionon tour in China. Presently, some degeneration phenomena have appeared in Jiuzhaigou,such as shrink of some lakes and landslide of calc-sinter, and it has catched many scholars'sattention. Jiuzhaigou has become a study hotspot in geography, geology and ecology etc. Asa natural scene spot, it is very important to evaluate eco-geo-environment and studyevolution trend to protection of Jiuzhaigou and study of other scene spots.Study of Jiuzhaigou has begun in 1978, and much datum have been accumulated ongeography, geology and ecology etc. But almost all of the work is basic study andqualitative analyse, and quantitative and compositive study is lack, and study based on 3S isblank. This thesis have a deep study of eco-geo-environment using some quantitativemethods, such as GIS, RS and other maths models. The author selects influencing factorsfrom four aspects, such as geo-environment, water system, eco-environment and tour, andhas stability evaluation, quality evaluation and sensitive evaluation. Then the authorforecasts evolution trend of eco-geo-environment.(1) In Jiuzhaigou, geo-environment is the base of sight existing and evolving, andwater system is the most important factor of sight existing and evolving, andeco-environment is another important factor influencing Jiuzhaigou sight. Withdevelopment of tour, human impact is also more and more stronger. From above fouraspects, the thesis founds a evaluation index system of stability of eco'geo-environment inJiuzhaigou. The thesis has stability evaluations to sights monomers, sight segments, andwhole scene. The author thinks that 5 lakes and 2 waterfalls are steady comparatively, and 9lakes are very steady in 16 sights monomers; 4 sight segments is very steady, and one sightsegment is steady comparatively in 5 sight segments.(2) In eco-geo-environment quality evaluation, the author selects 5 factors relating to eco-geo-environment, including vegetation index, humidity index, soil index, temperatureindex and slope, and analyses the relativity of the five factors to eco-geo-environmentquality, and founds a multianalysis and linear recursive equation of eco-geo-environmentquality. It is the equation of Jiuzhaigou eco-geo-environment quality: EI=0.801-0.319T6+0.433NDVI-0.131B1-0.624SLOPEThe author has a calculation by the equation by images of 5 factors, and creates aevaluation map of Jiuzhaigou eco-geo-environment quality. As a result, the Jiuzhaigoueco-geo-environment quality is carved up 5 grades, very good, good, good relatively grade,the medium grade and the bad grade. Area of very good, good, good relatively grades is71.09% of whole area, the medium grade is 14.30%, the bad grade is 4.20%. To sum up,Jiuzhaigou eco-geo-environment quality is good.(3) Sensitivity of eco-geo-environment is the sensitive degree of circumstancevariance and tour reflection. It reflects unbalance of eco-geo-environment and the problemof eco-geo-environment. The thesis has a sensitivity evaluation of eco-geo-environment, andplots out area of different sensitive grade in order to protect eco-geo-environment better.The evaluation is based on GIS and RS technology.The thesis selects some sensitive factors of eco-geo-environment to have a evaluationand sensitive subarea study, such as rupture structure, geologic disaster, slope, watercirculation, precipitation, vegetation, and tour road. The author analyses every sensitivefactor solely, and create sensitive grade map of single factor. Then, the author plots out 4sensitivity grades, and analyses synthetically all factors, and has a compositive evaluationof eco-geo-environment sensitivity in Jiuzhaigou. In addition, the thesis solely analyzes onesensitivity factor-vegetation, and has dynamic change analyse by RS images (LANDSAT/TM images and NOAA/AVHRR images).(4) By analyzing primary factors of influence eco-geo-environment of Jiuzhaigou,geo-environment and climate, the thesis forecasts evolution trend of Jiuzhaigoueco-geo-environment. Research indicates that geo-environment of Jiuzhaigou is steady.Precipitation and temperature will be ascending, and it will be helpful for vegetation growthand water supply. More vegetation will improve soil and underground water. Soeco-geo-environment of Jiuzhaigou will not be deteriorated, and sight will exist in definitegeologic epoch.
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