Brittleness Theory Of Complex System And Its Application To Risk Analysis Of Power System

In the past twenty years, the electric power industry has realized its aims at improving the economic performance of generating, transmission and distribution of the electricity by means of deregulation and competition. Along with the development of economy construction and the gradual reform of power market in China, it is very important to guarantee the safety and stable operation of the deregulated electric power system.Under the influence of different kinds of risk, deregulated electric power system and power market can be regarded as a complex system, which should has the brittleness besides the other characteristics owned by complex system based on complex system brittle theory. In this dissertation, the deregulated electric power system is considered as the object, and the researches have been carried out according to the risk of the deregulated electric power system applying complex system brittle methods and theories.Firstly, complex system is considered as object, which complexity and its measurement have been studied. Further researches about the definition, characteristics and models of brittleness have been emphasized depending on the integration of latest researches about it on the ground that it is one of basic characteristic of complex system.Secondly, study on the risk and brittleness of deregulated electric power system and its power market.Under the deregulated environment of electric power system, the independent power producer, operation utility of electric transmission system and independent electric retail can be considered as three subsystems in one brittle element. In addition, their relationship between each other should be non cooperative game according to the complex system brittle theory. They all need the injection of negative entropy in order to be in good operation state. However, for example,risk can induce the entropy increase of system, while information is one kind of negative entropy, which incomplete information will result in the deficiency of them. Because they can keep the increase of entropy in the bounded range by means of information exchange among them, they are in stable state. When one subsystem in the brittle element is collapsed owing to the inference outside and its entropy increase, the other two subsystems will face the same collapsed result because of the deficiency of negative entropy. At the same time brittleness of information system of electric power system has been studied.Thirdly, on the basis of the kernel independent component analysis algorithm, the research for estimating the influences of power market brought from risk has been studied. The estimation on the influences of power market brought from single risk has been finished by means of only part of knowledge of system and integrated influences of power market induced by some kinds of risks. Kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), i.e. whitened kernel primary component and independent component analysis algorithm, provides one way to use linear principal component analysis in the expanded nonlinear subspace of the observed data. That is, KPCA maps the original data space to a high dimension space called feature space through a kernel function, which PCA is carried out in this feature space. The distribution of the projected data can be made as non-Gaussian as possible.Finally, results of simulation experiments show that KICA can be used for estimating the individual risk influence profile of power market by the means of part of data of system without the knowledge of structure of system.