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Study On The Method Of Dynamic Control Of The Limit Water Level And Its Risk Analysis

Posted on:2004-06-29Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y Q CaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:1102360095955237Subject:Hydrology and water resources
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the development of the national economy, the water resources shortage is quite severe in north China, and the contradiction between water supply and need becomes more and more serious. Not only does the water resource shortage restrict the development of society and economy, but also causes the environmental problems. There are two approaches to relieve the above contradictions: one is new water resources and water-saving measures; the other is rational arrangement of the limited water resources. These two approaches supplement each other and boost the sustainable development of the regional economy and the sustainable exploitation of the water resources. The key point is how to regulate and control water resources Nowadays, in the real-time operation of reservoirs, the fixed limit water level is used, which results in great waste of water resources, so the study on dynamic control of the limit water level is crucial to enhance the water resources utilization in north China. The characteristics of the decision-making process include large-scaled, multi-objective, risk decision-making and group decision-making. Therefore, the study toward it offers theoretical and practical values for the optimization of water resources allocation.During the real-time operation of reservoirs, the limit water level is such an important and sensitive index that it directly affects how to reasonably mitigate the contradiction between flood control and benefits of reservoirs. And it is very urgent to describe flood seasons of reservoirs, to reasonably define the limit water level, to find an operable real-time control method of the limit level and to establish an appropriate control model of the limit level.Dynamic control of the limit water level belongs to non-structural measures of reservoir operation. With the analysis of the cause and rule of flood in the catchments and taking advantage of hydrology and metrology information, the operable method can be obtained which not only satisfies the flood prevention but also takes full advantage of flood resources, and the upper and lower limits of the limit water level are determined with serial hydrology calculation. Then, the rule of using the upper and lower limits is put forward to reach a beneficial flood operation with small risk. Therefore, on the basis of relative theories, models and methods, the paper studies the problems concerning the dynamic control of the limit water level in reservoir operation, and the main contents of this paper are listed, as follows.(1) The actuality and trend of study on dynamic control of the limit water levelare introduced from both domestic and abroad, and then the research background and main contents of this paper are put forward.(2) The risk of flood operation mainly comes from the errors of flood and rainfall forecast, in the next place, the errors comes from the decision-maker's subjective preference. Thus, it is one of the key issues in reservoir risk operation to externally analyze and understand the precision of flood and rainfall forecast. The causes of errors existed in remote survey system, flood forecast system and rainfall forecast system are systematically analyzed, and the makeup measures are presented when errors occur. Combining with case study, the application conditions of hydrologic meteorology forecast information and flood forecast information in dynamic control of the limit water level during flood seasons are also illustrated.(3) In order to relieve the contradiction between water discharge in flood seasons and water shortage after flood seasons, the manner of flood operation with fixed limited water level during fixed time should be adjusted. Taking into account weather and flood forecast information; the forecast operation manner is studied under the condition of without the change of the existing flood control standard to realize the conversion of flood control and benefits.(4) Through analyzing runoff and water utilization information during reservoir operation, design flood, and the existin...
Keywords/Search Tags:reservoir, limit water level, risk analysis, benefit analysis, dynamic-control, flood forecasting, weather predication, real time operation, Probability distribution
PDF Full Text Request
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