Study On Reliability Theory In Electricity Market

With the development of power system and the acceleration of power system deregulation, the problem of power system reliability in the deregulated environment is turning into a hot issue in the domain. The thesis proposes approaches taking reliability into account during market trading process, which are studied from the aspects of power system adequacy and power system security respectively. The work provides powerful theories that could guarantee optimal development of electricity market and secure operations of power systems. In the thesis, for the first time, power system reliability is treated as a special resource that could be traded in electricity markets and the theory of adequacy market is then proposed to level the need for power system adequacy and the supply of generation capacity by way of market trading. The thesis also proposes the property of adequacy market member, the type of the commodity traded in the market, the operation mode of the market and so on. An arithmetic of the market trading model is also proposed in the thesis. To formalize adequacy market members' behavior and market balancing process, the sequence operation theory is introduced. The thesis works out a set of methods to precisely evaluate the influence of any market member on system adequacy, which are integrated into a theory named adequacy addiblility theory. Based on the thorough analysis on cost compositions of generation, the essential of capacity cost of generation is disclosed, furthermore, a reliability price mechanism based on capacity cost of generation is built in the thesis. The thesis also proposed a supply side adequacy market trade model. The thesis studies the influence of power system components' outage on the cost of purchasing electricity. For the first time, utility risk index is proposed, based on which a utility risk evaluation system is built. The thesis also introduces utility risk into the market decision model and an arithmetic of that is also proposed. The thesis discloses the deficiency of traditional ways of evaluating risk of power system operation and market trade process and proposes a new component reliability evaluation model which take many factors into account such as components' continued operation time, maintenance histories of components, components'operation environment and so on. A power system component reliability flex model is proposed and data needed to evaluate power system components' reliability scientifically are also analyzed. The thesis studies new problems of power system reliability, and analyzing method correspondingly. The work of the thesis could be useful for secure and economical operation of power systems.