Study On Theoretically Estimating To Socio-Economic Losses Of Road Traffic Accident

The road transportation plays an extremely important role in thesocial and economic development. Meanwhile, some negative effectsexist in the road transportation, such as road traffic accidents,especially the vehicle crash, which breaks down the traffic orderseriously. The road traffic accidents endanger civilian's safety anddamage their properties. So how to assess the losses in road trafficaccidents is an urgent issue to be treated in the traffic safetymanagement sector.The paper mainly deals with the necessities and the urgency oflosses assessing of road traffic accidents in China, analyzes thecurrent situation of road traffic accidents, systemically take intoconsideration of some updated information and the research trend onthe socio-economic losses assessing of road traffic accidents in theworld. Then the paper points out the significance and the applicationprospects of the research. It introduces the research method and thetechnical route.The paper also explores the fundamental theory of assessing roadtraffic accidents losses, the cataloguing methods of the road trafficaccidents both over all world, the definition of relative coefficientsand mathematic base of modeling concerning assessing road trafficaccidents. Therefore, this paper cites many famous theories to predictand set up models, such as linear regression theory, Gray-system theory,Markov theory.This paper concludes three parts about selecting indexes ofassessing road traffic accidents, the index system of assessing roadtraffic accidents losses in China, the methods of assessing roadtraffic accidents losses, and sets forth the general model of assessingroad traffic accidents losses, this model relates to the toll of death,injury, property, social service and delay dealing with road trafficaccidents. The paper points out the application on the thought of"willing to pay"approach, which has long been applied abroad andabout to be used in China. After researching in-the-deepth, the paperproposes that the assessing road traffic accidents losses should baseon human capital approach and may apply the "willing to pay"approachwhile assessing or quantifying some indexes. Furthermore, this paper evaluates the general thought thatassessing road traffic accidents losses in some countries, thenpresents the indexes of death toll related to social economic lossesof road traffic accidents in China. It points first out that the lossesof death toll expected to create more value provided they were alive,so the created value should be calculated according to prediction oftheir end of life. And it first represents the basic methods and thoughtof assessing household losses to those who died in road trafficaccidents in China, and the calculating losses method of family livingstandards to those victims. Then it refers to several methodspredicting losses of road traffic accidents and it analyzes thefeasibility of applying Gray-Markov model in the research. Theoretically, this paper sets up assessing indexes of social andeconomic losses and models both from severe injured and light injuredvictims of road traffic accidents, and quantifies some indexes intoresearch purpose. The social and economic losses of the severe injuredvictims are evaluated mainly, then it defines the evaluating methodand modeling theory to the lower living standard due to severelyinjured. This paper emphasizes on the theoretical basis of assessingproperty losses and social service costs concerning the road trafficaccidents, establishes the assessing indexes system and modelingmethod, defines the assessing scope of property losses in road trafficaccidents, and focuses on assessing vehicle damage, freight losses,road and its infrastructure costs. It clarifies the assessing scopeof social service losses in road traffic accidents, concentrates onassessing police service losses, road-barriers clearing fees,administrative service losses, especially the evaluating and modelingof lawsuit service fees. This paper evaluates the basic thought of social delay losses inroad traffic accidents, which is to analyze and explore the whole orpartial discontinuing delay owing to the road traffic accidentsaccording to the traffic theories and road differences. It sets up thecalculating model of economic losses because of the delay resultingfrom road traffic accidents. In order to prevent road traffic accidents losses, this paperproposes the theoretical basis for safety decision, illustrates thecharacteristics, contents of safety management, and analyzes trafficpollution is a component of road safety problems just as trafficaccident, and presents the assessing model of safety managementbenefits. The innovative points in the research are as follows: (1) To propose the basic method of assessing road traffic accidentslosses, that is to combine human capital (e.g. gross production method)and "willing to pay"into assess the losses. This combined assessingmethod is suitable to the current situation of road traffic accidentsin China, and it is good for assessing the social and economic lossesscientifically and rationally in overall point of view. (2) According to the actual situation of road traffic accidentslosses in China, the paper proposes the assessing profile and indexessystem regarding road traffic accidents losses, the method for everyprocedure of road traffic accidents losses is found. To propose thetheoretical basis of applying "willing to pay"method, and discussthe indexes feasibility and basic implementation of the method inassessing certain road traffic accidents losses in today's China. (3) To propose the theoretical basis and assessing method regardingthe living standard changes of victims'family suffered in roadtraffic accidents. It finds the assessing methods of medical care andhousework losses due to road traffic accidents. (4) To propose the assessing method and the basic thinking routeconcerning road traffic accidents, to present assessing scope andmodeling method of social service losses. It reiterates the theoreticalbasis for traffic safety decisions, suggests the assessing model oftraffic safety management assessing and prediction model of accidentrisks losses. It is obvious from the research that the losses assessing of roadtraffic accidents refers to many aspects and many indexes, so the datacollecting work is very difficult. But the losses research andassessing of road traffic accidents is still very significant meaning.It is good for people to realize what cause the danger and danger extentof road traffic accidents, good for the traffic safety decision and...