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Research On Reliability Evaluation And Expansion Planning Of Power System Including Wind Farms

Posted on:2007-07-09Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y C WuFull Text:PDF
GTID:1102360182486696Subject:Power system and its automation
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Renewable energy has been increasingly embraced due to dwindling fuel reserves, and wind generation is one of the most prospective new energy. However, the large-scale wind generation connected to grid has adverse effect on the safety of power systems. Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, the paper studies wind randomicity and power systems indefinite characteristic, establishes the probabilistic model of power systems containing wind generation, and studies the characteristics of wind energy and evaluate its effect on the reliability and planning of power systems.This paper mainly contributes the following aspects:(1) To study the wind speed probability statistical model and forecast model.A new method is presented that Weibull distribution parameters of wind speed are calculated with the indices measured based on maximum likelihood estimation. The wind energy characteristic indices are calculated with the probabilistic distribution parameters and help to evaluate wind energy resources.Wind speed forecast model is presented based on time series method that carries on the medium and long-term forecast of wind speed sequence. According to historical wind speed data, the model is utilized to perform the tendency extrapolation forecast.(2) To study the reliability model of wind turbine generation.A reliability model of wind power is presented based on the sequential and not-sequential Monte-Carlo simulation respectively, which considers adequately the random feature of wind energy and the forced outage of wind units. The models are applied to simulate wind generation and evaluate correspondence reliability and economic indices.(3) To research the steady-state model and the reliability model of wind farms.The steady-state model of wind farm is introduced in the paper, which considers weak effect of wind farm and output power function of wind turbine generator. This model is applied to analyse power flow in power networks including wind farms. The example indicates the presented model is reasonable.The reliability model of wind power based on the sequential Monte-Carlo simulation approach is introduced to calculate such reliability indices as wind power capacity credit and wind generation EENS benefit, study reliability benefits of adding wind farms to power system and provide the important reference value for wind farm operation and planning.(4) To study capacity expansion plan of wind power generation system.This paper proposes the model of the optimal expansion planning of wind-diesel energy system based on improved genetic algorithm that the minimum overall cost capacity expansion scheme is sought meeting the non-linear constraints of planning. The evaluation of probability cost and reliability in the model is performed by using Monte-Carlo method.Probability method is applied to stochastic production simulation of generation system including wind farms based on the reliability model of wind farms. Genetic algorithm is employed to realize optimization expansion planning of generation system including wind farms.
Keywords/Search Tags:Power Systems, Wind Turbine Generation, Weibull distribution, Monte-Carlo simulation, Generation Expansion Planning.
PDF Full Text Request
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