Coping With Catastrophe Power Security Risk Assessment And Emergency Disposal System

Power security is the world's common problem related to social stability and economicdevelopment issues.It has been always been highly concerned by governments and powerenterprises all around the world.With the fast growth in electricity demand in our country,China's power system has become the world's largest and highest voltage level AC-DChybrid power grid.As the lifeblood of the national economy,once the power system wasfacing with various catastrophes (including stability disruption,natural disaster and humandestroy),it would surely bring great harm to the national economy and people's lives,aswell as national security.To raise the power system stability,assess and supervise the wholepower system and its potential risks within its structure and equipment as well asestablishing the power security risk assessment and emergency disposal system to copewith catastrophe is of great theoritical and practical importance.In a long period,power system has made a substantial amount of research ontraditional stability analysis and technical measures.In recent years,much progress inprobability analysis model and method has also been made as a supplement of systemsecurity assurance.Despite of this,power system accidents happens because of variouscatastroph from time to time in the whole world.The fact indicates the traditional systemsecurity analysis tool that stays only at the technical level is not enough.In addition tocontinued development in a variety of technical means,we have to establish morecomprehensive power security risk assessment and emergency disposal system,making thegovernment,electricity companies and the users to participate in the risk assessmentmechanism.And the mechanism should be placed under corresponding policy constraints.The paper launches some systematic study on constructing the practical anti-disaster powersecurity risk assessment and emergency disposal system participating by both governmentand power enterprises.The paper first addresses the new power security risk assessment and emergencydisposal system must be constructed by government and power enterprises' cooperation.Agame model between government and power enterprises is established to discuss the relationship between the two sides of the game.Through analysis of the model,the gamerelationship of government regulation and enterprise independent safety in production isdemonstrated.Then take the defects in our countries' power supply structure,power gridstructure and power emergency disposal for example,the paper further elaborates the gamerelationship between government and power enterprises.It points out that these problemscan be discovered by risk assessment and then renovated and prevented by appropriateregulation means and technical measures.Based on the game relationship,a new series ofpower security risk assessment concepts and methods are researched.The new concepts andmethods include:new recognition to large area blackout,the dynamic division of risk leveland how to establish the new government and enterprise cooperate risk assessment frame.From the government and power enterprise both concern point,the paper nextresearched some new index considering system cascading effect such as"power networknode importance",etc.It is of great importance to introduce these indexes to seek thecritical points in the network and assess the whole network invulnerability.In the meantime,the indexes could indicate the network vulnerability under natural disaster andintelligent attack situation.To calculate the new indexes,the paper sets up a complex powernetwork topology model.Based on the model,the calculation method for"power networknode importance"index is researched.The new calculation method is compared with thetraditional method depending only on"degree"to judge the critical nodes.Then the paperresearches the network invulnerability problem consider or not taken into account thecascading effect.It points out that the key node or unit cascading failure is responsible tothe large area blackout accidents.Then the author proposes using cohesion and connectivityconcepts to assess the complex power network invulnerability.The paper also makes some analysis and improvement research on some currentlypopular power system security risk assessment indexes such as probability index andseverity index.The analysis focuses on the probability index"Loss of Load Probability(LOLP)"and blackout severity index"Cost of Interruption (CI)"using Monte Carlosimulation and Value at Risk (VaR)method which is commonly used in economic area.Then takes Guangdong Province 500kV main power system as an example,calculates thoseindexes and makes analysis on the results.Based on the government and power enterprise cooperation risk assessment concept and method,the paper establishes the new power system risk assessment framework.Theframework is consist of traditional stability analysis,newly developed probabilisticreliability analysis as well as the risk analysis on power system structure,technology,equipment and management aspects.Also an action guide to realize the frame is introduced.Then takes Guangdong province power system as an example,implements the riskassessment framework into Guangdong province.The paper establishes the Guangdongprovince power security risk assessment system and action guide.Then the paper analyzes the relationship between power system security riskassessment and emergency disposal.Some research on emergency disposal method basedon the improvement process model is conducted.Then the paper addresses a general powersystem emergency command platform scheme after analysis on the whole power systememergency management system.The scheme is implemented to Guangdong provincepower system emergency management system.Finally the achieved research is concluded and future perspective on development ofpower security risk assessment and emergency disposal system is highlighted.