The Analysis On Random-across Model And Firing Efficiency In Fire Control

This dissertation, based on the random crossing phenomenon formed during a gun line passing through shoot door or a target passing through firing area randomly, and as the firing efficacy influenced by the phenomenon to be main study object, makes a study of the random characteristics, probability distribution and statistics characterastics of random-across time series generated by the same class of continuative stationary and ergodic normal process passing through bounded target areas, as well as the applications of random-across on damage probability estimation and firing efficacy appraisal during maneuver combats. The paper mainly includes tow parts: the study of the continuative random-across theory and theory's applications of damage probability estimation and firing efficacy appraisal on maneuver combats. In the first part, to start with the probability transform rate of continuative random process passing through target area boundary, the inner relations and their identity of random-across series are revealed through the study of the passing through frequency of random process and their innate laws, the characters of parameters and stationary of the random-across series are obtained; through building the matrix equation of probability transfer rate, derive the probability distribution models of residence time series, awaiting time series and crossing period series, and obtain their statistical property equations; From the properties of random-across reveal the identical character of the class of random-across series in probability distribution, achieve a simple and common probability models and a general theory for analyzing random-across; Through the numerical analysis and calculation, simulation as well as the practical computing on real testing data from the Testing-centure of Nation's Conventional Weapons, the theoretical results obtained above are shown to be correct. In the second part, drawing the characters of random-cross into the gunnery, further study the new ways and methods of damage probability estimation and firing efficiency appraisal on maneuver combats on the condition of random-cross by using the results in the first parts, obtained several methods of analyzes, forecasts and evaluations under condition of a given firing time and residence times; Through the example analyzes and simulation tests, the methods are shown to be efficient and practical.